Adverse weather meant only one WTA Monterrey semifinal was completed on Friday, when Diana Shnaider defeated Alycia Parks. Marie Bouzkova’s retirement against Ekaterina Alexandrova on Saturday confirmed the final lineup. It should be a great match and a fitting end to the tournament, but which woman is most likely to prevail?
WTA Monterrey Final Prediction
Diana Shnaider vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Head-to-head: Alexandrova 1-0 Shnaider
Shnaider overcame Kamilla Rakhimova, Elise Mertens, and Parks to reach the final. Her comeback to beat Mertens 3-6 7-6 7-6, saving five match points and recovering from 2-5 0-40 in the deciding set, was remarkable. Alexandrova beat Ajla Tomljanovic, Linda Noskova, and Bouzkova to reach her tenth WTA Final, and second of 2025.
Although both women are clean hitters who try to play aggressively, Alexandrova relies on her ball-striking more than Shnaider. This year’s Linz Open winner has a powerful serve and flat groundstrokes, but her movement is among the worst on the WTA Tour. Shnaider’s speed and footwork are not among the best in the sport, but she gets around the court better than Alexandrova. That is an advantage the 21-year-old will try to make count in Monterrey.
However, Shnaider might need to forget their last meeting a few months ago at the Charleston Open. Alexandrova thrashed Shnaider, who could not adjust to her opponent’s flat shots, 6-2 6-1. The young star also looked uncomfortable on the green clay used in Charleston, a surface not used at any other WTA tournament. It is slightly quicker and requires a different movement style than the red clay used at other events.
Despite that heavy defeat, I am backing Shnaider to get her revenge in the WTA Monterrey final. Bouzkova’s retirement after the first set will help Alexandrova to recover, but playing two singles matches in a day might still feel strange. Also, Shnaider should be more comfortable with her movement and the overall conditions in Mexico than in Charleston. That will help her to defend better, which is key to this matchup.
Prediction: Shnaider in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images
