Thursday’s action at the 2025 ATP Citi Open features an impressive amount of third-round matches in Washington, with all 16 remaining talents playing for a spot in the quarterfinals. As always, LWOT previews and predicts the upcoming matches, with this set of matches featuring top American Taylor Fritz.
ATP Washington Day 4 Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Learnier Tien
Head-to-head: First meeting
Tien has continued to rise in the rankings in 2025, and his 7-5 6-2 win over Andrey Rublev was stunningly his fourth Top 10 win of the season. Davidovich Fokina looked strong in an opening match win over Jaume Munar, but the American is playing with some firepower that could notch him another upset. Tien is notably consistent and patient on the court, and should not be intimidated by Davidovich Fokina’s variety. The momentum he has, coupled with the American crowd, may push him across the finish line.
Prediction: Tien in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Yibing Wu
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-0
The last time the two played, Medvedev was the World No. 1 when he took out Wu at the 2022 US Open. Medvedev started slow in his opening match against Reilly Opelka this week, but he seemed to adapt well to the conditions and Opelka’s weapons. Wu is also a power player and is coming off five matches in Washington, dating back to qualifying. He’ll have to serve well and force Medvedev to take risks and play aggressively. Ultimately, Medvedev is more experienced and performs at his best on this type of hard court.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: Tiafoe 1-0
Tiafoe didn’t look great in his first match here against Aleksandar Kovacevic, but he served well when he needed to and hit 12 aces to win 7-5 3-6 6-3. Cobolli looked strong in his first match, but there’s something about the American on home soil that always makes him a strong favorite unless taking on a Top 10 caliber opponent. He won his only meeting against Cobolli straightforwardly on a hard court last season, and typically reaches the late stages of his hometown tournament here. Don’t rule out Cobolli, however, who is enjoying the best season of his career.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
Taylor Fritz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Head-to-head: Arnaldi 1-0
Arnaldi upset Fritz the first and only time these two played, at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco last year. The conditions are somewhat similar in both Acupulco and Washington, D.C.–hot and muggy–but the courts are faster at this event, which will favor Fritz’s power. Fritz plays well on home soil, he looked strong in his opening match, and he should have too many weapons for the Italian.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
