Having covered the other two ATP Bastad quarterfinal matches yesterday, I am back with the other two today. David is still on break, so I’m still filling in with my best bets. Please let me know in the comments if any of my advice from yesterday was helpful to you. I seem to be hitting two out of every three bets I place, which is the type of average you aim for in predictions, if not a little higher.
ATP Swedish Open
Ugo Carabelli – Misolic: Time 12:30
H2H: 0-2
I need to stop picking Dutch tennis players. Camilo Ugo Carabelli had none of the problems I thought he would have against Botic Van De Zandschulp. Not only did Carabelli have a fantastic service game, he parked eight different aces in the match. He also saved 85% of break points, and I had predicted a complete failure in that department. Did I call that Nuno Borges would fail against Filip Misolic? At the end of the day, Borges’ unforced errors and inability to convert break points would be his undoing against Misolic. Borges was competitive, but he ultimately beat himself with mistakes.
Best Bet to Make
Ugo Carabelli won his last two matches as an underdog, and he certainly has the overall talent to make it to the semifinals and beyond, but Misolic has been playing on another level for quite some time now. Yes, Misolic has had some issues at the quarterfinal level this year, but his level of play inspires confidence in his overall play. There’s also the fact that Misolic has already beaten Ugo-Carabelli twice, and one of those times was April of this year in Bucharest. Misolic is also the better clay player this year. Time will tell if his quarterfinal loss against Lorenzo Musetti in three sets taught Misolic anything of note.
That being said, Misolic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Misolic winning @1.91 @Betfair
Cerundolo – Dzumhur: Time 15:30
H2H: 0-0
Francisco Cerundolo must have received some pretty effective advice from his younger brother, as he had little trouble putting Mariano Navone down in just 18 games. The former Bastad winner has a chance to reach his first semifinal since 2023. Standing in his way is Damir Dzumhur, whose best performance at Bastad before this year was a round of 16 finish in 2019. Dzumhur is 5-5 in his last ten matches, and he’s 19-14 on clay in 2025. Cerundolo not only has a tournament victory here before, but he’s 20-9 on clay this year, and 28-15 overall.
Best Bet to Make
Cerundolo is the favorite on the books, and he belongs at the top. The problem with betting on Cerundolo is that you’re going to have to play with outcome results beyond win or lose if you want to make any money. At only 1.25 straight, Cerundolo has more options in the prop realm. If you want to play it safe, you can take under 2.5 sets at 1.51 or do what I am doing and pick Cerundolo at under 21.5 games at 1.81 and profit. Cerundolo has been fantastic with break points, service games won, and first-serve points won. If he keeps performing at that level against Dzumhur, it should be as short of a night as it was with Navone.
That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cerundolo winning @1.65 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
