It’s now the round of 16 at ATP Bastad, and LWOS is back with more best bets. David is still on break, so I’m still filling in with my best bets. Let me know in the comments if any of my advice from yesterday paid off for you. Two out of my three bets cashed in yesterday from ATP Bastad, let’s see if the fortune continues.
ATP Nordea Open
Misolic – Moller: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-0
Filip Misolic has been tearing up the lower-level tournaments. He’s 47-15 overall on the year, and that includes two tournament victories, another final, a semifinal, and numerous quarterfinal appearances, as well. He also won five matches at the French Open this year en route to a third-round loss to Novak Djokovic. Elmer Moller has the same number of tournament victories, but hasn’t been anywhere near as dominant at the lower levels. Still, it’s somewhat surprising this will be their first match. Moller’s yearly record is 23-17, but he’s not had nearly the same level of success when stepping up in competition.
Best Bet to Make
Filip Misolic is the favorite in this match for a solid reason. He won’t make you much if you’re betting him straight, but he will make you money betting on him. He’s 8-2 in his last ten matches, and only four of those matches went beyond two sets. He made the quarterfinals of this very tournament in 2023, and this is the first time Moller has played at Bastad. Misolic is also more consistent when the competition steps up. Don’t bet this straight, take Misolic winning in under 22 games at 1.97 on Pinnacle. He’s in form, better on clay, and doesn’t mess around.
That being said, Misolic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Misolic winning @1.97 @Pinnacle
Kopriva – De Jong: Time 11:00
H2H: 1-1
The career rubber match between Vit Kopriva and Jesper De Jong ought to be fairly compelling television. At 1-1, De Jong took their last match at the ’22 French Open, and Kopriva won a three-round affair in 2020 at the Lima Challenger in the round of 16. De Jong enters this match in a serious tennis drought. He has three wins in his last ten matches, and two different three-game losing streaks in that same span. Kopriva isn’t playing incredible tennis either, but at least he’s 6-4 in his last ten, and he’s currently on a four-game winning streak. Kopriva also has a tournament win this year at Neopol and another final loss at Nonthaburi 3.
Best Bet to Make
The books are seeing this as a draw, but the odds are decent on either man. That said, we’re not here to talk about either man. Kopriva is the smart pick in this match for a host of reasons. Not only is Kopriva 31-14 overall this year, but he’s also 20-7 on clay in 2025. Jesper is 21-23 overall, and he’s also 15-13 on clay. Kopriva indeed had a slight dip recently, but he also showed that wasn’t the norm by rattling off an immediate four-game win streak to end that rut, and he never lost more than two in a row during that time. At 1.93, he makes far more sense than De Jong, and I’m saying that to you as a Dutch-speaking Dutchman.
That being said, Kopriva winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kopriva winning @1.93 @UniBet
Gaston – Dzumhur: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-0
It wouldn’t be cruel to call this the match of the lovable losers. At a combined 7-13 in their last 20 matches, Hugo Gaston and Damir Dzumhur probably aren’t on anybody’s must-watch list for this round. It would be a mistake to write this match off, however. Gaston showed significant improvement in his last match in both first serve points won and second serve points won. He actually had a 16% improvement in his second serve points won and a 14% improvement in break points saved. All in all, he played with the consistency I thought Tseng had. Dzumhur only recently began to show his teeth against Tallon Greikspoor in Bundesliga play. If he plays the same way he has in the last two matches, Gaston might need even more improvement to move on.
Best Bet to Make
Dzumhur is the favorite in this match, and it boils down to performances on clay and recent efforts. On the year, Dzumhur is 18-14 on clay, but Gaston is only 6-13. Neither man has ever made it past the round of 16 at Bastad, so that’s not going to be the X-factor. For me, Dzumhur has the greater overall potential and proved last year that things are beginning to come together for him. The recent success has been there for Dzumhur, at least to some degree. Gaston seems to be barely hanging on and has yet to establish himself on any surface, let alone clay. I’m taking Dzumhur straight.
That being said, Dzumhur winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Dzumhur winning @1.8 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
