The business end of the French Open has arrived, and the drama is peaking in Paris. With stars clashing and underdogs rising, the fourth round serves up a mouthwatering slate of matches that will shape the final stages of the tournament. From Novak Djokovic chasing history to rising talents like Jack Draper, every court is a theater and every set a potential turning point. We’ve got expert predictions from our panelists to guide you through the chaos of Monday’s Round of 16 action.
Alexander Bublik vs Jack Draper
Ilemona Onekutu: This fourth-round clash promises fireworks, with Bublik’s unorthodox creativity testing Draper’s disciplined power game. The Kazakh’s recent resurgence, including a dominant straight-sets win over Rocha, shows he’s found rhythm on clay. While Draper’s ruthless efficiency which saw him drop just eight games against Fonseca, highlights his clay-court evolution. If Bublik’s unpredictable shotmaking disrupts Draper’s baseline tempo, an upset could brew, but consistency in longer rallies may prove decisive. Prediction: Draper in 4
Steen Kirby: Bublik is aiming for his first ever Grand Slam quarterfinal, while Draper has backed up his run to the 2024 US Open semis with a solid performance on the red clay of Paris. Bublik has been a bit under the radar, but his upset win over Alex de Minaur in five sets (from 2 sets down), backed up by the routine win against the unheralded Rocha in the third round is very impressive. Draper faced no threat from Joao Fonseca in the third round, and survived Gael Monfils and the crowd in round 2. Draper is the favorite, but Bublik is going to give him fits of trouble, and maybe do more than that. Prediction: Draper in 5
Damian Kust: Bublik’s clay awakening over the last few weeks has been stunning to witness and his backhand is such an elite shot. When he turned it on for three sets against de Minaur, a Top 10 player had no answer. But Draper isn’t as easy to overwhelm and will hit back, so this would basically require Bublik to be on his best behavior for like four hours if he wants to have a chance. I have a hunch he might perform better than expected, but can’t really pick him to win.
Prediction: Draper in 5
Cameron Norrie vs Novak Djokovic
Ilemona: Cameron Norrie’s lefty grind could trouble Djokovic early, but the Serb’s flawless Roland Garros form—no sets dropped—makes him tough to rattle. While the Brit’s improved clay game may push rallies deep, Djokovic’s clutch play in key moments should prove decisive. Expect a competitive start before the 24-time major winner’s consistency takes over. Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Steen: Djokovic didn’t get tired from winning ATP Geneva, and rather has gained a lot of confidence in his clay court game, having blasted past his third three unseeded opponents without trouble. Norrie took the scalp of a still seeded but off-form Daniil Medvedev in five sets in the first round, and then has cruised in rounds 2 and 3. Djokovic isn’t the unbeatable player that he was, but I don’t see him beaten today, after Djokovic beat him in Geneva last week, he will be aware of what Norrie can threaten him with, and will respond accordingly. Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Damian: To quote The Maltese Falcon, Djokovic’s draw is the stuff that dreams are made of. Did he need it to be this comfortable? Probably not, but it does help a ton. Norrie pushed him for a while in their Geneva semifinal about a week ago, but his game is quite volatile right now and he’s often stuck between ideas. Djokovic in the longer format surely finds enough to take him down eventually. Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev
Ilemona: Jannik Sinner enters this clash in imperious form, having dismantled Jiri Lehecka 6-0, 6-1, 6-2 in just 93 minutes—extending his Grand Slam winning streak to 17 matches and showcasing near-flawless serving (losing just nine points on serve). Rublev, meanwhile, arrives fresh after a walkover due to Arthur Fils’ injury but carries a 4-2 head-to-head deficit against Sinner, including three straight losses. Expect Sinner’s cleaner baseline game to prevail in a physical battle. Prediction: Sinner in 3
Steen: Only Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Sinner in the two tournaments since he returned from the doping ban. He’s on the warpath and has hammered his first three opponents. Rublev dropped a set against Lloyd Harris in round 1, he’s a solid player, and will be well rested after the third round walkover, but Sinner looks untouchable right now. Prediction: Sinner in 3
Damian: Yes, Rublev defeated Sinner last year in Canada. But that was mostly due to the Italian struggling physically and he avenged that loss the week after (still hasn’t lost to anyone but Alcaraz since). The top two seeds at this event are just playing a different sport to anybody else and it will take a monumental effort to stop them. Rublev’s ceiling and floor are much lower than Sinner’s right now and it was fortunate for him that Fils was too injured to compete.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor
Ilemona: Zverev’s clay pedigree faces a stern test against an in-form Griekspoor, who beat him at Indian Wells this year. While the German leads their H2H 6-2, the Dutchman’s aggressive net play and recent five-set grit could trouble him. Expect Zverev’s serve to be decisive in what might be a tight battle. Prediction: Zverev in 5
Steen: There’s been concerns raised about Zverev’s form on clay, but other than brief blip against Jesper De Jong, he’s looked solid, and Flavio Cobolli was blown off the court in round 3. Griekspoor is at this stage, but has not had a routine victory yet. The Dutch player has posted his best ever result in a Grand Slam, but Zverev has a clear advantage. Prediction: Zverev in 4
Damian: This rivalry has been so close over the past year or so with Griekspoor winning in Indian Wells, but also missing major chances in Munich or at this event last year. It’s clear he can compete with Zverev and force him to go into the ultra-passive mode in the key moments. But the problem is most of the time that’s enough to win one way or another, particularly as Griekspoor might be struggling to deal the finishing blow.
Prediction: Zverev in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
