ATP Masters 1000 Rome semifinals
Alcaraz – Musetti: 16.05.2025 15:30 CEST
H2H: 5-1
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. This is his second appearance in Rome. In the opening round, Alcaraz won against Lajovic 6-3 6-3. The Spaniard faced another Serb in the third round. He trailed 1-3 in the opening set against Djere but turned it around. In the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz had his toughest challenge so far this week. He defeated Khachanov in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. Today, in the quarterfinals, Alcaraz defeated Draper in straight sets. In his debut campaign, the Spaniard lost against Marozsan in the third round.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, Musetti won against Virtanen in straight sets in the opening round. He offered no breakpoints. The Italian won against Nakashima 6-4 6-3 in the third round. This time, Musetti offered only one breakpoint and saved it. In the 1/8-Finals, Musetti defeated Medvedev in tight straight sets. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Musetti won against Zverev in straight sets. The Italian saved four set points in the opening set.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Earlier this season, Alcaraz demolished Musetti in the second and third sets of the ATP Monte Carlo final. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow. The Spaniard is a better clay-court player and handles the pressure better than Musetti.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Sinner – Paul: 16.05.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 3-1
Jannik Sinner has won 28 straight matches. He is returning to competitive tennis after serving a three-month suspension related to anti-doping procedures. This week in Rome, Sinner easily won his opening-round match against Navone in straight sets. In the third round, he defeated de Jong in straight sets. Sinner lost his serve twice against the Dutch but still won in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Cerundolo put up a big fight against Sinner but still fell short, losing in straight sets. Today in the quarterfinals, Sinner demolished Ruud, winning 6-0 6-1.
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, Paul won the opening round match against Bautista-Agut in straight sets. He served great, but he did not offer any breakpoints. His toughest challenge was in the third round against Machac, winning in three tight sets. The American was a better player in the deciding set and won deservedly after spending almost three hours on the court. Paul upset de Minaur in the 1/8-Finals. Today, in the quarterfinals, Paul defeated Hurkacz in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sinner is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Today, he played out of this world against Ruud, a better clay-court player than Paul. With the help of the packed crowd, we believe Sinner will win easily against Paul tomorrow.
That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -5.5 games handicap @-110 @FanDuel
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
