The WTA Italian Open is shaping up to provide some of the most entertaining tennis seen in 2025 in the later rounds. Here are the best bets for the third round action, including a prop bet with Coco Gauff. If you agree with my picks, let me know in the comments.
WTA Italian Open
Paolini – Jabeur: Time 11:00
H2H: 2-2
When she hasn’t been making fans’ dreams come true off the court, Ons Jabeur has been hit or miss on the court. She hasn’t had an extremely strong showing in 2025, and she needs something to get going. Jasmine Paolini has had quite a 2025, but hasn’t found a way to bring it home at any tournament. She has two semifinal showings at Stuttgart and Miami, but both times she was sent home in straight sets. Jabeur has beaten Paolini before, but it was 2023 when she last did so, and the two are in much different places than they were then.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Paolini as a pretty decent favorite, and I agree. When Paolini is on her game, she can beat anyone in the world and has done so. The problem for her is that she doesn’t win a lot of tournaments. Since 2020, she’s won a grand total of three tournaments, and only one of them was on clay. That was back in 2021. She should still be able to roll past Jabeur, but it might not be the worst idea to look at some odds on Jabeur just in case.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @1.57 @WilliamHill
Volynets – Tauson: Time 12:30
H2H: 1-1
Katie Volynets and Clara Tauson have met twice before, with one win each. Both games were played recently, but both were on a hardcourt. Entering this match, Tauson is the higher-ranked player, but Volynets is 11-2 on clay in 2025 alone. Yes, a few of them were at the ITF level, but she’s also notched at least two wins in both of her last two WTA-level events. Tauson has never been one for too many clay tournaments; her career record is 59-31. She’s lost both matches she’s played on clay in 2025.
Best Bet to Make
This is one of those matches where I’m highlighting a player that might have a bunch of value for those willing to take a risk. As stated, Volynets saw the majority of her clay success at the ITF level this year, but 11-2 on clay is 11-2, especially when your opponent is 0-2 this year and 9-7 over the last two years. Volynets is ranked high enough on the world scale for me to believe in her skills translating at any level, and I think she will be too much for the Dane when they play. Just be aware, the books have Tauson as a favorite.
That being said, Volynets winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Volynets winning @2.44 @Pinnacle
Gauff – Mboko: Time 19:00
H2H: 0-0
Coco Gauff has been one of the world’s best since the start of 2025. She made the finals of her last tournament in Madrid. She dominated the United Cup against every opponent she played. She reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, as well. The only thing she doesn’t have this year is a tournament victory. Victoria Mboko has also been one of the best players in the world since 2025 began. She has five tournament victories in 2025, but all of them are at the ITF level. In her two WTA-level tournaments on clay, she lost her only match at Saint-Mal as a nearly one-point favorite, but then turned around and won two qualifying matches before losing in the first round at Rome.
Best Prop Bet to Make
The books have Gauff as a sizeable favorite, and I agree. While much is expected of Mboko, and I imagine her and Gauff will have much to exchange off court, she’s still a youngin’ going up against one of the best in the world. The books have Gauff as the favorite by as much as eight points at one outlet. There’s a chance that Mboko wins down the line, but not here. That said, the real value on Gauff can be found on the over/under action. Both under 19 games and over 19 games can be had for the same value, making it the best way to make money on Gauff in this match.
That being said, Over/Under 19 games is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 19 games @1.93 @1xBet; Under 19 games @1.93 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
