Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff headline semifinal action at the WTA Mutua Madrid Open. The defending champion has a dominant 11-3 record against her American rival, but has lost their last two matches. Will Swiatek turn the tide and seize momentum on her beloved surface? Who will reach the final?
WTA Madrid Semifinal Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 4-1 Svitolina
Sabalenka’s late-night victory over Marta Kostyuk means that a historic all-Ukrainian semifinal in Madrid is off the table. The World #1 maintains her excellent record in this tournament, which includes three finals in her last four appearances (she’s lifted two titles but lost to Swiatek last year). Sabalenka has a Tour-leading five finals this season and will be seeking a sixth.
Svitolina is quietly having a terrific clay-court swing. She played a starring role in securing Ukraine’s spot in this year’s Billie Jean King Cup Finals (she scored two singles wins) and carried that momentum to Rouen, winning her first WTA title in two years. Svitolina has convincingly erased any concerns about her endurance with four straight sets wins in Madrid. However, Sabalenka remains the ultimate test. The Belarusian is the Tour’s winningest player and also the most consistent under pressure in this tournament (saving 35 of the 44 break points she has faced so far).
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff
Head-to-head: Swiatek 11-3 Gauff
Swiatek is coming off a statement win against Australian Open champion Madison Keys. It’s been years since Swiatek lost a set so decisively on clay, but she didn’t panic and still played with her authoritative brilliance to turn the match around and win 0-6 6-3 6-2.
Gauff had a breezy afternoon booking her spot in the last four. The American won a closely contested first set from a break down before pulling clear of the rising Russian sensation Mirra Andreeva. She recorded an impressive 7-5 6-1 victory. Gauff extended her perfect record against the 18-year-old to 3-0.
Swiatek faces the challenge of reversing her recent slide against Gauff. At the halfway point last season, Swiatek held a colossal 11-1 head-to-head record, beating Gauff in Rome and at the French Open. Gauff toppled the world #2 at the 2024 WTA Finals and in this year’s United Cup to narrow the margin in this rivalry. This is still a horrible matchup for Gauff, and on a surface where Swiatek rarely flinches, the outcome is likely to be in favor of the latter.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
