The 23rd edition of the Madrid Masters begins at La Caja Magica, featuring a host of matches on the cards, promising an exciting day for the fans. In this piece, we look at four of those matches to predict who will advance to the second round to play the big guns. We have predictions for every ATP Madrid first day match as well.
ATP Madrid Day 1 Predictions
Marin Cilic vs Benjamin Bonzi
Head–to–Head: Cilic 1 vs 0 Bonzi
Marin Cilic is making his return to the Madrid Open, showing encouraging signs that his two years of injury struggles may finally be behind him.
The former US Open champion has gradually returned to consistent competition following knee surgery and recently impressed on the Challenger circuit, claiming victory in Girona and finishing as a runner-up in Madrid.
Although the best years of the former world number three may be in the past, he will aim to conclude his career on his terms and seek a strong finish in 2025.
The 36-year-old will face Benjamin Bonzi, who has not secured a win on clay this year and has dropped outside the top 60 with a 3-7 record on tour so far.
The French player has a surprisingly poor record on clay and lost his only previous encounter with Cilic in four sets at Wimbledon in 2021.
Though Bonzi is ranked higher and younger, this match is for Cilic to lose, and we expect the veteran to get the job done on familiar hunting grounds.
Prediction: Cilic in 2
Alexander Bublik vs Alex Michelsen
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Bublik is currently struggling, and things might deteriorate further before they improve since the European clay-court swing is his least favourable time of year. The 27-year-old has a disappointing record of 3-10 this season, causing him to drop to No. 75 in the world rankings.
His first opponent at the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday is Michelsen, currently ranked 38th, who has already secured 13 main-tour victories in 2025 and will be motivated to make a deep run in pursuit of a French Open seed. The 20-year-old skipped Monte Carlo but is aiming to make it past the first round in Madrid for the first time, and there won’t be a better opponent than the unpredictable Alexander Bublik.
Although Michelsen is relatively inexperienced on clay, he began his spring season by reaching the quarterfinals in Houston. The fast conditions at high altitude can benefit both Bublik and Michelsen; however, clay generally spells trouble for the Kazakh.
This matchup marks the first encounter between the two, both known for their powerful serves and heavy groundstrokes, but Michelsen is an emerging talent and will outshine Bublik’s erratic style in these quick conditions.
Prediction: Michelsen in 2.
Flavio Cobolli vs Fabian Marozsan
Head–to–Head: Cobolli 0 vs 1 Marozsan
Cobolli and Marozsan are set to face each other for the second time in their careers on Wednesday. Their only prior matchup happened three years ago on the red clay of the San Marino Challenger, where Marozsan won 7-6(5), 6-4.
Since that time, both players have made significant progress and are firmly placed within the top 100.
Cobolli has surged to 36th in the rankings and rebounded from a sluggish start to the 2025 season by securing his first ATP title on clay in Bucharest earlier this month. Marozsan, currently ranked 58th, is coming off a semifinal appearance in Munich, where he lost to the eventual champion, Alexander Zverev.
The Italian, ranked world number 36, sits 41 spots higher than Marozsan, but the Hungarian did claim victory in their only prior encounter, which was also on clay in San Marino three years ago.
This encounter could swing either way, but the Italian has a slight advantage, preferring the relatively fast conditions in Madrid more than the dropshot-oriented Marozsan.
Prediction: Cobolli in 3.
Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Nuno Borges
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Since defeating Rafael Nadal in the Bastad final last year, Nuno Borges has only managed to win another match against a Spanish player, overcoming Pedro Martinez in the Monte Carlo round of 16 in a three-set match on his debut in France.
The 28-year-old Borges will arrive here hopeful of achieving a better result on his third attempt in Madrid, having been eliminated in the first round during his previous two tries.
His opponent, Pablo Carreno-Busta, has recorded a 2-5 win-loss record on the tour this year and has just returned to the top 100 after battling through a prolonged injury period.
The 33-year-old has made a mark in various Challengers this year but has struggled to transition to the higher level and even though six of his seven matches in Madrid have ended in the first round, we anticipate that this will be a bounce-back spot for the more accomplished player to and with the crowd behind him, a win is within reach.
Prediction: Carreno-Busta in 3.
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
