The ATP Monte Carlo Masters second round features some top competitors, and with it come some really interesting betting opportunities. My featured match is none other than Tomas Machac vs Alex De Minaur. Here are my best bets. Do you agree? Did I hit the mark? Let me know in the comments below.
ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Machac – De Minaur: Time 14:30
H2H: 1-0
The first time Tomas Machac and Alex De Minaur played one another was quite literally this past weekend at the Ultimate Tennis Showdown in Monaco. In fact, the last match De Minaur played was against Machac. However, De Minaur was not Machac’s last match. This will be his fourth match in five days. This will only be De Minaur’s third in the same timeframe. One can’t help but wonder how much of a factor fatigue might play in this match, especially since the last three matches have all been three sets, five sets, and four sets, respectively.
Best Bet to Make
Even though Machac literally just beat De Minaur, even the books don’t see Machac as a favorite. I’m going to speculate that overall rest has heavily factored into that result. I am inclined to disagree with the books on principle. Machac is 8-2 in his last ten with a tournament victory and two victories at the Ultimate Tennis Showdown. De Minaur is 5-5 in that same span with only two round of 16 appearances. The nail in the coffin for me is that Machac and De Minaur have the same number of career losses on clay courts at 49, but Machac has 84 wins to De Minaur’s 67.
That being said, Machac winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Machac winning @2.15 @Pinnacle
Tiafoe – Popyrin Time 14:30
H2H: 1-0
The last time Frances Tiafoe and Alexei Popyrin locked horns was at the 2024 U.S. Open, which Tiafoe won in four sets during the round of 16. Tiafoe is 6-4 in his last ten, and Popyrin is 4-6. When it comes to 2025 records, Tiafoe checks in at 10-7 while Popyrin has struggled at 3-7. When you add it all up, one thing becomes very clear: this game has a really odd line.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Popyrin winning, and I am dumbfounded. I get that he just arrived at Monte Carlo. I understand that he played an extremely tight match versus Kekmanovic, but Popyrin is having a dreadful 2025 and 2-3 in his last five matches. Clay stats aren’t much better as Popyrin is 77-58 to Tiafoe’s 118-67. At 2.26, Tiafoe looks extremely tempting, almost like the one they forgot to adjust.
That being said, Tiafoe winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tiafoe winning @+126 @Pinnacle
Vacherot – Dimitrov: Time 15:30
H2H: 0-1
Valentin Vacherot and Grigor Dimitrov square off at Monte Carlo for the second year in a row. Last year’s match saw Dimitrov overcome Vacherot in straight sets. The Bulgarians will be happy to make it two victories in a row, as well. Dimitrov is also playing really well, entering Monte Carlo, going 7-3 in his last ten matches. Vacherot has won three of his last four, but is 6-4 in his last ten. At 126-72, Vacherot is no slouch on clay, but Dimitrov is a much more robust 182-104.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Dimitrov winning, and I completely agree. If you feel compelled to bet on Vacherot, you can make a handsome amount at 4.5 on several sites. It would be pretty hard to make anything off the favorite, as Dimitrov checks in at -400. This is one of those bets that you make if you know something I don’t, which is entirely possible. If you have a feeling, pull the trigger on Vacherot for some serious cash; otherwise take the much smaller payout with Dimitrov.
That being said, Dimitrov to win is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Dimitrov winning @-400 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
