ATP 250 Houston 1/16-Finals
Michelsen – Tien: 01.04.2025 01:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Alex Michelsen has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where Ugo Carabelli upset him in the opening round. His last clay court match was at the French Open last season. Michelsen never succeeded on clay courts. Last season in Houston, Michelsen lost in the opening round against Purcell.
Learner Tien has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where he lost to Fonseca in three tight sets in the opening round. His last clay court match was over a year ago in the States, losing in the ITF tournament. In 2023, Tien reached the semifinals at the Boys French Open.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tien is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. His playing style fits clay courts, while Michelsen struggled on clay his whole career. We expect Tien to adapt better to the surface and win.
That being said, Tien winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Learner Tien winning @2.10 @bet365
Galan – McDonald: 01.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-2
Daniel Elahi Galan has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Galan played in the Challenger Tournament on clay, losing in the quarterfinals. Last season in Houston, Galan was stopped in the second round. He was the semifinalist here in 2019.
Mackenzie McDonald has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Miami, where he lost against Kyrgios in the opening round. His last clay court win was in 2022. McDonald has struggled on clay his whole career.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Galan is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better clay-court player than McDonald, and we expect him to dominate. McDonald has been winless on clay courts for almost three years.
That being said, Galan winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Daniel Elahi Galan winning @1.73 @bet365
Nishikori – Krueger: 01.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Kei Nishikori has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Phoenix, where he lost in the semifinals against Fonseca in straight sets. He last played in Houston in 2011. In his last clay court tournament, Nishikori reached the quarterfinals of the Challenger Tournament.
Mitchell Krueger has won three of his last five matches. This week in Houston, Krueger qualified for the main draw tournament. His biggest result here was reaching the second round. Last season, Krueger failed to qualify for the main draw tournament.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Nishikori is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better clay court player than Krueger, and we expect him to dominate and win in straight sets.
That being said, Nishikori winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kei Nishikori winning 2-0 @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
