Day 5 at ATP Miami is loaded with exciting matches, including one between six-time champion Novak Djokovic and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, who has already eliminated two home favourites. Last year’s runner-up, Grigor Dimitrov, will also play old foe Karen Khachanov. As always, we at LWOT predict who will make it to the next round.
ATP Miami Day 5 Predictions
David Goffin vs Brandon Nakashima
Head–to–Head: Goffin 0-3 Nakashima
David Goffin seems to have an annual ritual of causing a major upset after several weeks of slumbering results. The Belgian was on a dismal 3-10 record for the year before arriving in Miami, but he has secured two solid wins, including the shocking upset over favourite Carlos Alcaraz.
He is up against Brandon Nakashima, whom he hasn’t defeated in three attempts and was the same opponent who brought him back to earth after he put together two solid wins in Acapulco.
Goffin doesn’t hit the ball as hard as his younger peers, but he has that accurate timing that allows him to dictate rallies, and the fast courts in Miami suit his game. On the other hand, Nakashima is a counter-puncher who knows how to find angles with his impeccable backhand.
With two evenly matched players from the baseline, the margins will decide this encounter. The American with the better serve will have the psychological edge and the Miami crowd behind him to get over the line.
Prediction: Nakashima in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head–to–Head: Auger-Alliasame 3-3 Musetti
Felix Auger-Allissime has made an impressive start to the season with two titles, although he will be looking to make amends for his early exit at Indian Wells earlier this month. He quickly dispatched Australian qualifier Tristan Schoolkate in the opener to set up this encounter against a familiar opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, who he’s traded wins.
The Italian hasn’t had a great start to the season, partly due to his injury in February. He is 6-3 for the season and struggled to get past Quentin Halys in the previous round despite the Frenchman hitting a barrage of aces.
Auger-Aliassime has been playing with more confidence this season, and along with his strong service game, he has the agility to chase down every point and whatever the Italian throws at him.
Prediction: Auger-Alliasame in 2
Grigor Dimitrov vs Karen Khachanov
Head–to–Head: Dimitrov 4-1 Khachanov
Grigor Dimitrov suffered several injury setbacks at the start of the season, and he’s now getting back to his best with three wins out of his last four matches. The only loss is coming to Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells.
In contrast, Khachanov has been uncharacteristically inconsistent this season, winning consecutive matches just once at the Australian Open. Since then, he’s won just 3 out of his last eight matches, although he did bagel Nick Krygios to secure a second-round win, yielding only six points on his opening serve and not facing any break points.
Even though Khachanov won their most recent encounter, Dimitrov dominates their head-to-head and is the more in-form player. ATP Miami has been a good hunting ground for Bulgarian, and his versatile shot-making and all-court game will earn him another confident win against the inconsistent Russian.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 2
Novak Djokovic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Djokovic’s pursuit of a record seventh title at the Miami Open started positively this week, as his guile and agility enabled him to overcome Rinky Hijikata, who posed challenges for the 24-time Grand Slam champion in the second set. The 37-year-old has not been ousted before the round of 16 in this tournament since 2018, but he has not advanced past the round of 32 in any singles tournament this year, suffering a defeat at that stage of the Qatar Open last month against Matteo Berrettini in straight sets.
Carabelli clawed his way into the main draw as a lucky loser and seized the opportunity by recording two remarkable comeback wins against two Americans, Brandon Holt and Alex Michelsen, to the home fans’ dismay. Even if Carabelli delivers an exceptional performance, it’s unlikely sufficient to topple a player of Djokovic’s caliber. With some of the top seeds out, the Serb has the motivation to win this.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images
