ATP Miami Round 2
Arnaldi – Machac: Time 17:30
H2H: 0-1
Where Arnaldi is 16-14 on hard surfaces over the last year, Machac is 25-12 in that same span with one tournament title to his credit, as well. Arnaldi’s best matches come on clay whereas Machac feels at home on hard courts. Machac also beat Arnaldi in this exact same tournament in the Round of 16 in straight sets. He also dumped him out of Dubai in 2023 quarterfinals, also in straight sets. The Czech is also playing lights out tennis headed into ATP Miami, having won nine of his last ten.
Best Bet to Make
This one is just above my value line but also seemingly sure enough that you’re likely to cash out. The bookies to have Machac winning, but they’re confident enough in Arnaldi to offer decent odds. At 2.6, Arnaldi is also going to be tempting for people looking for an upset, but this match is not the droid you’re looking for, to borrow an expression. 13-4 on hard courts with one tournament victory vs 6-5 with two losses in head-to-head competition previously. It’s your money, but you know what I’m telling you to do with it.
That being said, Machac winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Machac winning @1.56 @1xbet
Thompson – Mpetshi Perricard: Time 17:30
H2H: 2-0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is really working on his hard court game and while he’s 13-13 over the last year, he does have a tournament title to his name during that time. He also commands an 86.3% winning percentage in service games on hard courts. Jordan Thompson 78.5% of his service games. Thompson is also in only his second match since coming back from an injury and Mpetshi Perricard’s struggles lately have been against taller players and Thompson is only 6ft tall.
Best Bet to Make
The bookmakers all believe Thompson is going to come out on top, but we disagree. As mentioned, Thompson is returning from an injury and his ability to deal with the power and speed of Mpetshi Perricard is not going to be at its peak. Taking Mpetshi Perricard at +110 on many books could be a fairly efficient way to cash out on an upset.
That being said, Mpetshi Perricard winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mpetshi Perricard winning @+110 @DraftKings
Fonseca – Humbert: Time 08:00
H2H: 0-1
Both Joao Fonseca and Ugo Humbert have had a solid 2025. Both have a tournament victory and both are well above .500 in their last ten matches. We even have a recent match between the two of them on a hard court at the Davis Cup. This one is definitely going to be one of the most competitive matches of the early rounds at ATP Miami and neither man winning will come as a surprise to anyone, but I do slightly favor Fonseca and I’m happy to indulge the “why” below.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Humbert winning this match and I strongly disagree. Fonseca is 16-2 in 2025 on hard surfaces while Humbert is 6-4. Both guys have done tremendously well in 2025, but Fonseca is slightly better in his last ten matches, having won eight compared to Humbert’s seven. Yes, Fonseca lost on a hard surfaces in straight sets at the Davis Cup, but that loss seems to be the outlier.
That being said, Fonseca winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fonseca winning @2.27 @betfair
Main Photo Credit: Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports
