The ATP Indian Wells Masters has already delivered its fair share of surprises, and as the tournament progresses, the stakes continue to rise. There are several intriguing third-round matches on the slate on day five and, as always, we at LWOT will offer predictions for every match on the slate including Matteo Berrettini vs Stefanos Tsitsipsas. But who will advance at ATP Indian Wells?
ATP Indian Wells Day 5 Predictions
Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Musetti 1-0 Fils
Arthur Fils and Lorenzo Musetti face off in a matchup that could be dictated by form and confidence. Musetti won their only previous meeting, but he has struggled for consistency in 2025, with early losses in Buenos Aires and Rio, while Fils is also coming off back-to-back first-round exits in Rotterdam and Dubai. Both players had encouraging results in their respective matches in the second round after getting byes in the first round. The slow conditions should suit Musetti’s heavy topspin game, but his recent struggles make him vulnerable against Fils’ more aggressive play. If Fils can dictate with his forehand and disrupt Musetti’s rhythm, he has a good chance to edge this one.
Prediction: Fils in 3
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Tommy Paul vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Norrie 3-2 Paul
Tommy Paul and Cameron Norrie face off in a battle of baseline grinders, with Norrie leading their head-to-head 3-2. Paul has been the sharper player in recent weeks, reaching the semifinals in Dallas, while Norrie has struggled for form. Though Norrie is a former Indian Wells champion, his level has dipped in recent years, whereas Paul’s all-court athleticism has looked well-suited to the slow conditions. Given Paul’s recent consistency and Norrie’s struggles, the American is favored to come through in a physical contest.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Holger Rune vs Ugo Humbert
Head-to-head: Rune 3-0 Humbert
Holger Rune and Ugo Humbert meet in a compelling third-round clash, with Rune holding a dominant 3-0 head-to-head record. However, recent form tells a different story—Humbert has been one of the most consistent players in 2025, winning Marseille and making deep runs in Rotterdam and Dubai, while Rune has struggled with early exits and hasn’t looked at his best physically. The slow conditions at Indian Wells should suit Rune’s heavy groundstrokes, but Humbert’s confidence and rhythm make him a serious threat. If Rune can’t raise his level, Humbert has a strong chance to break his losing streak in this matchup.
Prediction: Humbert in 2
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Alex Michelson vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Alex Michelsen faces a huge test against world #6 Daniil Medvedev in their first career meeting. Michelsen has impressed with his composure and shot selection, but he lacks the firepower to consistently hit through Medvedev, who thrives in the slow Indian Wells conditions. Medvedev, despite some recent struggles, remains one of the toughest players to break down, and his deep-court defense should neutralize Michelsen’s game. Unless Medvedev has an off day, his experience and consistency should see him through comfortably.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main photo credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
