ATP 500 Acapulco 1/16-Finals
Shapovalov – Basavareddy: 26.02.2025 02:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Denis Shapovalov has won five straight matches. His last match was in Dallas two weeks ago. As we had predicted, he won the title against Ruud in the final. Denis defeated Kecmanovic, Fritz, Machac, and Tommy Paul en route to the final. It was an impressive run from the young Canadian who is close to returning into the top 20. Before the ATP 500 Dallas, Denis had never won an ATP 500 title. It is his third appearance in Acapulco. He has never made it past the second round.
Nishesh Basavareddy has won three of his last five matches. His last match before the ATP 500 Acapulco was at the Australian Open. He had an unlucky draw and lost against Djokovic in the opening round. This week in Acapulco, Nishesh successfully qualified for the main draw tournament. In the final qualifying round, Basavareddy defeated Kozlov in straight sets. He had a breakthrough season last year and hopes to continue playing well this week.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, and we agree. Denis is in great form after winning his maiden ATP 500 title. On the other hand, Basavareddy is one of the biggest upcoming American talents. They are both big servers; we expect a tight match with possible tiebreakers.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 22.5 games @1.80 @bet365
Zverev – Arnaldi: 26.02.2025 02:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. His last hard-court match was at the Australian Open, where he finished runner-up. After the Australian Open, Zverev decided to play in two clay court tournaments. As we had predicted, Sascha lost in the quarterfinals against Cerundolo in Buenos Aires. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Comesana upset Zverev in three tight sets. It is his seventh appearance in Acapulco. He is the first seed this week. Last season, Altmaier upset Zverev in the opening round. Sascha won the title here in 2021.
Matteo Arnaldi has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Delray Beach, where he reached the semifinals. He struggled under pressure in the semifinal clash against Davidovich Fokina and lost in straight sets. So far this season, Matteo has not had any remarkable results. It is his second appearance in Acapulco. Last season, Arnaldi lost in the second round against Shelton in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Zverev is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. He has played on clay courts for the last couple of weeks and needs time to adapt to the surface. Arnaldi is a dangerous player on hard courts, and we expect him to put up a big fight and keep this match tight.
That being said, Arnaldi covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
