ATP 250 Buenos Aires 1/8-Finals
Fonseca – Coria: 13.02.2025 17:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Joao Fonseca has won three of his last five matches. Fonseca won the Challenger title in Canberra in his season-opening tournament without losing a set. Fonseca qualified for the main draw tournament in Melbourne without losing a single set. In five tight sets, he was stopped in the second main draw round against Sonego. It is his first appearance in Buenos Aires. In the opening round, Joao won against Etcheverry in straight sets. Around this time last year, Joao played at the Challenger Tour level.
Federico Coria has won three of his last five matches. This week in Buenos Aires, Federico failed to qualify for the main draw tournament, losing against Djere in the final qualifying round. However, with several players withdrawing, Coria entered the main draw tournament as a lucky loser. Coria won against Gaston in straight sets in the opening main draw round. Coria reached the semifinals last year in Buenos Aires, losing against Diaz Acosta in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Coria is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Coria is a clay-court specialist who played in Buenos Aires for six consecutive years. We expect a tight match with a possible three sets.
That being said, Coria covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Federico Coria +4.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Martinez – Schwartzman: 13.02.2025 19:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Pablo Martinez has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Rotterdam, Martinez reached the quarterfinals, losing against Alcaraz in straight sets. This week in Buenos Aires, Pablo won the opening round match against Dzumhur in three tight sets. After losing the first set 0-6, Pablo adapted to the surface and turned the match around. He trailed 2-4 in the deciding set and even saved a match point. His last appearance here was in 2023 when he lost in the opening round against Zapata Miralles in three sets.
Diego Schwartzman has won three of his last five matches. He retires this week at the Argentina Open in his hometown of Buenos Aires. Last week in Rosario, Diego played in a Challenger tournament, losing against Ugo Carabelli in the opening round. He wanted to prepare for ATP Buenos Aires, considering he has not played competitive matches since the US Open 2024. Diego upset Jarry in three sets, as we had predicted in the opening round. The former top-10 player had a great career and always fought until the end. He was granted a wild card this week.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Schwartzman is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Pablo played in Rotterdam on indoor hard courts last week and needs time to adapt to the surface, which we saw in his opening match against Dzumhur. On the other hand, Diego will give his best since it is his last career tournament, and he will have a packed crowd on his side. We expect him to keep this match tight.
That being said, Schwartzman covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Diego Schwartzman +3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
