We wrap up the third round of the Australian Open on Day 7, with eight men’s matches to decide who reaches Round 4. As always, our writers at LWOT will share their thoughts on all matches. We split the day’s eight matches between this and a second article–featuring Taylor Fritz vs Gael Monfils. Predicting these matches are Damian Kust, Tope Oke, and Ateet Shrivastava. Who do you think will win on Saturday?
Australian Open Day 7 Predictions
Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo
Damian:
The Australian Open was the only Slam de Minaur didn’t make the quarterfinals at last year and he’s got a great opportunity here. Cerundolo’s powerful forehand holds up across all three surfaces and his constant delivery of spin can put just about anybody on the back foot. But de Minaur likes it there and should be pretty comfortable just making sure to shrink the court and extract enough errors from his opponent. This is his toughest test yet, though.
Prediction: De Minaur in 4
Tope:
De Minaur has been in impressive form, winning his first two matches without dropping a set and showcasing his exceptional return game, a strength that has seen him surpass even Novak Djokovic in break percentage, leading the tour by breaking serve 31.6% of the time last year.
Cerundolo scored a solid straight sets win over Alexander Bublik in the first round before benefitting from retirement by his compatriot Facundo Diaz Acosta in the second. While he has demonstrated his capability on hard courts, his record indicates some inconsistency, with 11 losses in his previous 18 matches on this surface.
De Minaur’s relentless speed, improved serve efficiency, and superior return game rightly makes him the favorite and buoyed by the home fans, it will be a huge upset if the Argentine wins.
Prediction: De Minaur in 4
Ateet:
Alex de Minaur is playing like a contender and has been outstanding behind his serve. Cerundolo is a top player when he is on song but I would have liked his chances more if this was a clay court match. The Australian does almost everything better than Cerundolo on a hard court.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Holger Rune vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Damian:
Rune had some real nuggets of quality in his first two matches, especially when he was playing a more reserved and economical brand of counter-punching tennis. Considering his career trajectory of late, it’s pivotal for him to not let this go to waste and at least reach that fourth round matchup with Sinner. Kecmanovic’s relentless consistency might make it a bit tricky, but he’ll probably find a way.
Prediction: Rune in 4
Tope:
Miomir Kecmanovic struggled to get past his compatriot Dusan Lajovic in the opener before delivering an impressive straight-sets win against the big-serving 18th seed, Hubert Hurkacz. Before the Australian Open, Kecmanovic showcased his form by reaching the semifinals at the Adelaide tournament.
After an early exit in Brisbane to Jiri Lehecka, Rune navigated a rather tortuous path to get here, but it is apparent he is improving with every match.
The two players have traded wins in their head-to-head, albeit on indoor hardcourts, and in this one, they’re capable of beating each other; I like the Dane to edge what promises to be a slugfest.
Prediction: Rune in 5
Ateet:
Not many people would have expected Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets. Kecmanovic was flawless from the baseline and his backhand did a lot of damage. Holger Rune got another win over Matteo Berrettini and was spot-on with his game plan. Kecmanovic is an entirely different matchup for Rune, and he will need to be dialled in from the start. Rune has the greater upside, and if he can maintain it for long periods of the match, he will win.
Prediction: Rune in 5
Learner Tien vs Corentin Moutet
Damian:
How will Tien recover from that marathon against Medvedev? In fact, that’s two marathons for him already. It might be tough in another tactical chess-like matchup where two under-powered players try to outsmart each other. It seems pretty likely that if Moutet can keep his head in the game, he might eventually find a way to prevail here.
Prediction: Moutet in 4
Tope:
Corentin Moutet is one of the sport’s most versatile players, but his 54%-win rate on hard courts is inferior to Learner Tien’s 78%-win rate on the same surface and his extraordinary victory over last year’s runner-up Daniil Medvedev in a five-set thriller underscores his potential and current form.
Moutet’s experience on tour contrasts with Tien’s recent surge and confidence from his victory over Medvedev, setting the stage for a compelling encounter which will result in victory for the American teenager if he maintains his current level of play.
Prediction: Tien in 5
Ateet:
Learner Tien got the biggest win of his life when he defeated Daniil Medvedev with a fantastic performance. Tien’s control on his shots was remarkable and his willingness to play the points on his terms towards the end proved to be the key. Moutet plays a completely different style than Medvedev and can cause more problems for the American player. Moutet will look to come to the net often and take out the floating slice option from Tien’s game. It would also be hard for the 19-year-old to replicate a great level after such a big win. I am going with the Frenchman.
Prediction: Moutet in 4
Jannik Sinner vs Marcos Giron
Damian:
Sinner lost a set to Schoolkate, but it’s nothing to worry about yet and Giron won’t be attacking him with such violent net aggression. In terms of pure quality on the shots, it will be tough for the American to keep up. He’d probably need a lot of Sinner errors to take a set, let alone three.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Tope:
I don’t think the defending champion will drop a set until deep into the championship after unexpectedly dropping one against local wild card Tristan Schoolkate. While Giron’s competitive spirit and composed win over Toma Martin Etcheverry suggest he could challenge Sinner, I expect the Italian to step on the gas in this one and advance without blemish.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Ateet:
Sinner finally lost a set after a long time as he looked a bit sluggish at the start of his second-round match. However, he found his range in time and ended the match playing some great tennis. Marcos Giron can keep this close for a set or two, but I can’t see him having any more success than that.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
