ATP Australian Open 1/16-Finals
Carballes Baena – Paul: 17.01.2025 03:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Roberto Carballes Baena has won four of his last five matches. The Spaniard has played two preparation tournaments so far. Last week in Auckland, Roberto reached the quarterfinals, losing against Bergs in three tight sets. In Melbourne, Baena won the opening round against Tabilo in four sets after losing the first set 1-6. Roberto stayed calm and successfully turned the match around. In the second round, Roberto easily defeated Duckworth in straight sets. Being a Spaniard, Carballes Baena had the most significant results on clay throughout his career. Last year in Melbourne, Roberto lost in the opening round against Gaston in four sets.
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, Paul reached the semifinals, losing against Auger-Aliassime in three tight sets. Tommy won the opening round match against O’Connell in five tight sets in Melbourne. Paul was a better player under pressure in the deciding fifth set, which is why he won the match. Yesterday, in the second round, Tommy defeated Nishikori after losing the first set 6-7. Kei was tired and only won four games in three sets after winning the first. Last year in Melbourne, Tommy reached the third round, losing against Kecmanovic in five sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Paul is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Carballes Baena showed a high level of tennis this week, and we expect him to keep this match tighter than the bookies think.
That being said, Baena covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roberto Carballes Baena +6.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Fearnley – Zverev: 17.01.2025 03:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jacob Fearnley has won four of his last five matches. So far this season, Jacob has played only one preparation tournament. Two weeks ago in Canberra, Fearnley reached the semifinals at the Challenger tournament, losing against Fonseca in straight sets. Here in Melbourne, Fearnley won in the opening round against Kyrgios in straight sets. He lost his serve only once. Other than that, Fearnley served well throughout the whole match. Yesterday, in the second round, Fearnley defeated Cazaux in four sets, as we predicted.
Alexander Zverev has won four of his last five matches. So far this season, Sascha has only played in the United Cup, winning both matches. In his opening match here in Melbourne, Sascha defeated Pouille in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints and was solid under pressure. In the second round, Zverev demolished Pablo Martinez in straight sets yesterday. Last year in Melbourne, Alexander was 2-0 up against Medvedev in the semifinals. Daniil turned the match around.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fearnley is the huge underdog in this matchup, and we partially agree. However, Jacob has a solid serve and forehand. We believe he will hold his service games comfortably and keep this match tighter than the bookies think.
That being said, Fearnley covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jacob Fearnley +6.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
