ATP Australian Open 1/64-Finals
Baez – Cazaux: 13.01.2025 04:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Sebastian Baez has lost eight straight matches. This week in Auckland, Baez lost in the opening round against Diaz Acosta in straight sets as we predicted. His last win was in the US Open, winning against Darderi in the opening round. That said, Baez is winless for over four months. The young Argentine plays his best tennis on clay. Last year in Melbourne, Baez reached the third round, losing against Sinner in straight sets. Reaching the third round is also his biggest result in Melbourne.
Arthur Cazaux has won three of his last five matches. This week in Adelaide, Cazaux reached the second round, losing against Auger-Aliassime in three tight sets. The Frenchman had a decent chance against Felix, but crumbled under pressure. In his first tournament of the season, Cazaux played in Brisbane, losing against Lajovic in the opening round in straight sets. Last year in Melbourne, Arthur reached the 1/8-Finals, losing against Hurkacz in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cazaux is the favorite in this matchup and we agree. He had a couple of solid wins last week in the Australian Open. Cazaux is a solid hard-court player and we expect him to win against Baez easily. Baez is in terrible form and this is his least favorite surface.
That being said, Cazaux covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Cazaux -4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Sinner – Jarry: 13.01.2025 04:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Jannik Sinner has won 17 straight matches. So far this season, Sinner has not played any competitive matches. His last match was in the Davis Cup, helping Italy lift the title. His last loss was in October in Beijing, losing against Alcaraz in the final as we predicted. Jannik is the defending champion in the Australian Open. Last year, Sinner defeated Medvedev in five sets, after being 0-2 down. According to the bookies, Jannik is the biggest favorite to win the title in Melbourne.
Nicolas Jarry has won three of his last five matches. So far this season, Jarry has played only one preparation tournament. Last week in Brisbane, Nicolas reached the quarterfinals, losing against Lehecka in straight sets. Last year in Melbourne, Jarry lost in the opening round against Cobolli in five tight sets. He has never made it past the second round in the Australian Open.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sinner is the huge favorite in this matchup and we partially agree. Last year in Beijing, Sinner defeated Jarry in three sets under similar conditions like here. Sinner has not played any competitive matches for a while. We believe that Jarry with his big forehand and solid serve could keep this match tighter than what the bookies think.
That being said, Jarry covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nicolas Jarry +8.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Know your limit. Play within it.
