For much of their early encounters, Daniil Medvedev had Jannik Sinner figured out. Medvedev’s relentless defense, tactical variety, and deep-court positioning frustrated the young Italian, giving Medvedev an edge in their head-to-head. Yet, in recent months, Sinner has rewritten their rivalry, capturing consecutive wins and showcasing an evolving game that has left Medvedev struggling to adapt. In this article, we explore what Medvedev can do to regain the upper hand and end his losing streak against Sinner.
Evolution of the Rivalry: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner
Medvedev’s Early Dominance
When Medvedev and Sinner first began meeting on the ATP Tour, Medvedev’s consistency and unique style presented challenges that Sinner, for all his talent, found difficult to solve. Medvedev’s deep-court positioning, combined with his knack for drawing errors from opponents, played to his advantage. Medvedev forced Sinner into extended rallies, pushing him to overhit and capitalizing on any impatience from the Italian. For several matches, this strategy worked seamlessly, allowing Medvedev to control the narrative of their rivalry, gaining a six match head start in the head to head.
Sinner’s Turning Point
However, over the past couple of years, Sinner’s game has undergone a significant transformation. No longer simply a powerful baseliner, Sinner has added more precision, aggression, and versatility. His improved ability to take the ball early, attack Medvedev’s weaker shots, and dictate points has shifted the dynamic in his favor. Now, Medvedev faces a version of Sinner that’s more comfortable on offense, more resilient in defense, and increasingly capable of challenging even the tour’s best tacticians.
Key Tactical Shifts Sinner Has Made
To understand how Medvedev can counter Sinner, it’s essential to recognize the tactical shifts that have allowed Sinner to turn the tables. Sinner has moved closer to the baseline, taking time away from Medvedev and neutralizing his deep-court position. By attacking early, Sinner has managed to pressure Medvedev into hitting defensive returns, giving the Italian a consistent advantage in rallies.
Further, where Sinner once relied heavily on his groundstrokes, he now finishes points at the net more frequently, closing down Medvedev’s defensive space. This added layer to his game has made it harder for Medvedev to settle into his preferred long-rally rhythm. With an improved first serve, Sinner has been able to consistently apply pressure, preventing Medvedev from finding the break opportunities he once capitalized on. This has allowed Sinner to build momentum in matches and dictate points from the outset.
What Medvedev Needs to Do to Regain Control
With Sinner’s evolved game in mind, Medvedev will need to make several adjustments to level the playing field and find his way back into the winner’s column against the Italian. Medvedev’s tendency to play far behind the baseline has historically been an advantage, allowing him time to reset and return deep, forcing opponents into mistakes.
But against Sinner, this positioning is now backfiring, giving Sinner too much time to set up aggressive shots. To counter this, Medvedev may need to step up inside the baseline, particularly on his own service games and during rallies. By taking the ball earlier, Medvedev could disrupt Sinner’s rhythm and prevent him from dictating with his forehand.
Medvedev is known for his patience, often outlasting opponents in extended rallies. But against a player like Sinner, who’s comfortable in long exchanges, Medvedev may benefit from embracing a more aggressive, first-strike approach. Incorporating more forceful groundstrokes and flattening his shots could allow him to keep Sinner off-balance. By going for winners earlier in the rally, Medvedev can force Sinner into defensive positions that limit his ability to take control.
Medvedev’s serve remains a powerful weapon, but Sinner’s return game has made it less effective in their recent encounters. To break through, Medvedev could diversify his serving patterns, using body serves to jam Sinner’s swing and targeting Sinner’s backhand more aggressively. Additionally, incorporating more varied speeds and spins could disrupt Sinner’s timing, creating opportunities for Medvedev to take advantage of shorter returns.
While Medvedev is more comfortable in baseline exchanges, incorporating some net play could surprise Sinner and keep him guessing. Occasionally approaching the net or deploying well-timed drop shots would disrupt Sinner’s rhythm, especially in rallies where the Italian is beginning to assert control. This tactic could force Sinner to adapt mid-rally and allow Medvedev to inject variety into the points.
The shift in their head-to-head record can impact Medvedev’s confidence, especially after a series of losses. Medvedev needs to approach their future matches with fresh tactics and a renewed mental approach, focusing on each point without dwelling on past defeats. By maintaining composure and adapting his game plan even during the match, Medvedev can stay competitive and withstand Sinner’s momentum shifts.
The Medvedev-Sinner rivalry has become one of the most compelling matchups on the ATP Tour. Where Medvedev once dominated, Sinner has found ways to counter, elevating his game and creating a new challenge for the former #1. But Medvedev, with his tactical prowess and adaptability, has the tools to adjust and fight his way back into contention.
For Medvedev, the path to winning against Sinner again lies in a combination of tactical adjustments and mental resilience. If he can successfully alter his positioning, adopt a more aggressive style, and remain composed under pressure, he has every chance to reclaim his advantage in this fascinating rivalry. As their matchup evolves, it stands as a testament to the ever-changing nature of elite tennis, where adaptability, strategy, and mental fortitude are just as crucial as skill.
Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
