ATP 500 Basel 1/16-Finals
Carballes Baena – Arnaldi: 21.10.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Roberto Carballes Baena has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Antwerp, Roberto reached the second round, where he lost against de Minaur in three tight sets. It was a solid tournament for the Spaniard, who usually underperforms on the fast courts such as this one. Last year around this time, Baena played in Paris, where he failed to qualify, losing against J.J. Wolf in the second qualifying round. Roberto never had any success on the hard courts.
Matteo Arnaldi has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Matteo played in Shanghai, where he lost his third round match against Medvedev in three tight sets. Matteo is one of the biggest Italian talents right now. The young Italian is aiming to get into the top 30 in the rankings. Matteo had his biggest results on the slower courts. So far in his career, Arnaldi has only won one main-draw match on the indoor hard court. Last year around this time, Arnaldi played in Vienna, where he lost his 1/8-Final match against Rublev in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Arnaldi is the slight favorite in this matchup. This has been his best season, so we believe that he will be confident coming into this match. Baena is a clay court specialist, but he never had any success on the hard courts. On the other hand, Arnaldi had some decent success on the hard courts this season as well. We believe that he will be a better player on the court tomorrow, and win the match.
That being said, Arnaldi winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Arnaldi winning @1.53 @bet365
Rublev – Borges: 21.10.2024 20:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Andrey Rublev has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Stockholm, Andrey was upset by Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. The Russian fumbled under pressure, and lost the most important points of the match. Rublev had his biggest results on the clay courts this season. His biggest title was in Madrid, where he won the title, winning against Auger-Aliassime in the final.
Nuno Borges has won three of his last five matches. His last match was at the US Open, where he lost against Medvedev in the 1/8Finals. Since then, Borges has been battling with his wrist injury. Nuno is looking to get his first-ever win against a top 10 player. He currently holds a losing 0-9 record against the top 10 players. Last year, around this time, Borges spent most of his time playing at the challenger tour level.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that: We are still not sure if Borges is 100% ready for this match. On the other hand, Rublev thrives under these conditions, so we expect him to win this match in comfortable straight sets.
That being said, Rublev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev winning 2-0 @1.57 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
