ATP 250 Almaty final
Diallo – Khachanov: 20.10.2024
H2H: 0-1
Gabriel Diallo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Gabriel reached the semifinals of the challenger tournament, where he lost against McDonald in straight sets. Here in Almaty, Diallo won his opening match against O´Connell in straight sets. Gabriel offered and saved only one breakpoint. It was a great serving performance from the young Canadian. After that, in the 1/8-Finals, Gabriel defeated Coric in straight sets once again. Diallo served well once again, saving both breakpoints in the match. In the quarterfinals, Diallo earned himself the biggest win of his career. He defeated Tabilo in three tight sets. After losing the first set 3-6, Diallo stepped up his level, and turned the match around. In the second and third sets, Diallo did not lose his serve, and managed to stay calm when it was most important. Today, in the semifinals, Diallo completely dominated against Cerundolo. Diallo won 6-4 6-2, and had yet again a great serving performance. Gabriel looked comfortable on the court, even though it was the biggest match of his career. For the last couple of months, Diallo had some solid results at the challenger tour level. This will be his first-ever final at the highest level.
Karen Khachanov has won three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Shanghai, Khachanov lost his opening match against Giron in straight sets. Here in Almaty, Khachanov won his opening match in tight straight sets as we predicted. Both players served well throughout the match. However, Khachanov was a better player under pressure, and deservedly won in two tiebreaks. In the quarterfinals, Khachanov defeated Zhukayev in straight sets as we predicted. It was another great serving performance from the Russian. Karen offered no breakpoints in the whole match. He ended the match with 18 winners and 12 unforced errors. Today, in the semifinals, Khachanov defeated Vukic in three tight sets. He spent over two hours on the court, and even came back after being set down. Karen fumbled under pressure in the first set, but his experience decided later in the match. Karen has already won one title this year. Earlier this season, Khachanov lifted the trophy in Doha. He is looking for another title here in Almaty. Khachanov has been struggling with his form for the last couple of months. With his recent poor performances, Khachanov is no longer a top 20 player. Last year around this time, Khachanov played in Vienna, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Medvedev in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Khachanov is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Karen is a way more experienced player than Diallo, so we expect him to dominate in this matchup. When it comes to big matches such as this one, experience is a main factor. Khachanov has already won many titles at the highest level, so we think that he will handle the pressure better than Diallo.
That being said, Khachanov winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov winning @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
