ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/16-Finals
Monfils – Humbert: 07.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 1-3
Gaël Monfils has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Monfils lost against Medvedev in straight sets in the first round of the tournament as we predicted. Here in Shanghai, Monfils defeated Dzumhur in tight straight sets. After that, in the second round of the tournament, Monfils defeated Baez in three tight sets. Gael is on the verge of dropping outside the top 50 in the rankings, so he is hoping for a solid result this week in Tokyo. Last year around this time, Gael played in Stockholm, where he won the tournament, winning against Kotov in the final.
Ugo Humbert has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Humbert reached the final, where he lost against Fils in three tight sets. Humbert had a match point in the second set, and was close to winning the title. Here in Shanghai, Ugo won his opening match against Cazaux in easy straight sets. Despite being a top 20 player, Ugo has a poor record playing at the Masters level. Last year in Shanghai, Humbert reached the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Humbert is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Gael struggled against Baez yesterday, and looked exhausted by the end of the match. On the other hand, Humbert dominated in his opening match here in Shanghai, and almost won the title last week in Tokyo.
That being said, Humbert covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert -2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Arnaldi – Medvedev: 07.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 0-3
Matteo Arnaldi has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Arnaldi lost his opening match against Tommy Paul in straight sets as we predicted. Here in Shanghai, Matteo defeated Svajda in his opening match. Arnaldi lost the opening set 6-7, but stayed calm, and easily turned the match around. Last year in Shanghai, Arnaldi reached the third round, where he lost against J.J. Wolf in three tight sets.
Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Medvedev reached the semifinals, where he lost against Alcaraz in straight sets as we predicted. Daniil has been struggling with his form recently, but his recent result in Beijing might give him some self-confidence back. Here in Beijing, Medvedev defeated Seyboth Wild in his opening match in tight straight sets. Last year in Shanghai, Medvedev reached the third round, when he fell short against Korda in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Medvedev is the favorite in this matchup. Arnaldi never had any success on the fast courts such as this one. On the other hand, this is the favorite part of the season for Medvedev. We believe that Daniil will dominate from the very start, and win this match easily.
That being said, Medvedev covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Daniil Medvedev -4.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
