ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/32-Finals
Baez – Monfils: 04.10.2024 08:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Sebastian Baez has lost four of his last five matches. After retiring in the second round of the US Open against Griekspoor, Baez took some time off to rest and prepare for the upcoming Asian Swing. His last match was in the Davis Cup a couple of weeks ago, where he lost against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. Baez had his biggest results on the slow clay courts. He usually underperforms on the faster courts such as this one. Last year in Shanghai, Baez reached the third round, where he lost against Sinner in three tight sets.
Gaël Monfils has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Monfils lost against Medvedev in straight sets in the first round of the tournament as we predicted. Here in Shanghai, Monfils defeated Dzumhur in tight straight sets. Gael is on the verge of dropping outside the top 50 in the rankings, so he is hoping for a solid result this week in Tokyo. Last year around this time, Gael played in Stockholm, where he won the tournament, winning against Kotov in the final.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Monfils is the favorite, and we agree with that. Gael showed great tennis in the first round, and looked motivated. On the other hand, Baez is struggling with his form, and has not had any big results this season on the fast courts. We believe that Monfils will dominate from the very start, and win this match easily.
That being said, Monfils winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gaël Monfils winning 2-0 @2.10 @bet365
Tsitsipas – Nishikori: 04.10.2024 08:00 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Stefanos lost in the first round, where he was upset by Michelsen in three sets as we predicted. Tsitsipas has been struggling with his form this season, which led to him being outside the top 10. Last year in Shanghai, Stefanos reached the third round, where he lost against Humbert in three tight sets.
Kei Nishikori has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Nishikori had a solid tournament, where he reached the quarterfinals, when he lost against Rune in three tight sets. Here in Shanghai, Nishikori won his opening match against Navone, after losing the first set 3-6. His most recent appearance in Shanghai was in 2018, where he reached the quarterfinals. Kei had his biggest result in Shanghai in 2011, when he reached the semifinals in his tournament debut.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Stefanos is the favorite in this matchup. Nishikori had a solid tournament last week, so we expect him to be confident coming into this match. Just two months ago, under similar conditions, Nishikori defeated Tsitsipas in straight sets. We believe that Kei will have a decent chance and keep this match tight.
That being said, Nishikori covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kei Nishikori +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
