ATP 500 Tokyo semifinals
Machac – Humbert: 30.09.2024 11:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Tomas Machac has won three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Machac played in the Davis Cup, where he retired mid-match in both of his matches. Here in Tokyo, Tomas looked fully fit on the court. Machac won against Popyrin in three tight sets in the first round. Tomas was a better player under pressure, and deservedly won the deciding set 7-5. Machac was great under pressure, saving all four breakpoints. In the 1/8-Finals, Machac defeated Paul in three tight sets. After losing the first set 2-6, Machac turned things around. In the deciding set, Tomas was 0-3 down, but stayed composed and turned the match around. Today, in the quarterfinals, Machac defeated Michelsen in straight sets. He offered only one breakpoint. Other than that, Tomas had a great serving performance. With this result so far, Machac got closer to the top 30 in the rankings. So far this season, Machac has not had any remarkable results, but was consistent throughout the whole season. Last year around this time, Tomas spent his time playing at the challenger level tournaments, where he had decent success.
Ugo Humbert has won four of his last five matches. After being upset by Comesana in the second round of the US Open, Humbert played in the Davis Cup for France. In his last Davis Cup match, Humbert lost against Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets as we predicted. Here in Tokyo, Humbert defeated Mochizuki in the opening round in straight sets as we predicted. Ugo offered and saved two breakpoints. He ended up winning the match 6-1 6-2. After that, in the 1/8-Finals, Humbert defeated Nakashima in straight sets as we predicted. Once again, Humbert saved all three breakpoints. His serving performance was on point. Ugo ended the match with 34 winners and 18 unforced errors. Today, in the quarterfinals, Ugo won the first set against Draper 7-5. At the beginning of the second set, Draper retired due to an abdominal injury. Humbert lost his serve twice in the first set. However, his return game was on points, so he managed to break Jack’s serve three times. Ugo is still a top 20 player, and is looking for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. So far this season, Humbert has won two ATP titles already. Those results were at the beginning of the season, where he won the title in Marseille and in Dubai as well.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Humbert is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Ugo is a top 20 player, who loves to play under these fastest conditions. Machac was consistent throughout the whole season, but usually fumbled in the later stages of the tournament. Ugo has already won two ATP titles, so we believe that he will be fully confident coming into this matchup.
That being said, Humbert winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert winning @1.62 @bet365
Know your limit. Play within it.
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
