ATP 500 Beijing 1/16-Finals
Rublev – Carreno-Busta: 27.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 4-0
Andrey Rublev has won three of his last five matches. After losing in the 1/8-Finals of the US Open against Dimitrov in five tight sets, Andrey took some time off. Rublev prepared for the Asian swing these last couple of weeks. So far this season, Andrey has been consistent throughout the whole season, which made him number 6 in the world. At the beginning of the season, Rublev won the title in Hong Kong. After that, Andrey reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open.
Pablo Carreno-Busta has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Pablo helped Spain in the Davis Cup. He won his only singles match against Thompson in three tight sets. Carreno-Busta showed some signs of improvement in his fitness. He is still playing with his protected ranking. Unfortunately, the injuries have ruined the last two seasons for him. Pablo barely played any matches this year. However, he played solid tennis against the best players in the world.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the big favorite in this matchup. Pablo is always dangerous on every surface. He played great tennis last week in the Davis Cup. We believe that he will be able to keep this match tight if he comes into this match fully fit.
That being said, Pablo Carreno-Busta covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pablo Carreno-Busta +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Struff – Wawrinka: 27.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 1-0
Jan-Lennard Struff has lost four of his last five matches. His last win was two months ago in the Olympic Games, where he defeated Cabral, who was an unranked player, in straight sets. After getting upset by Djere in the opening round of the US Open, Struff took some time off to rest and prepare for the upcoming Asian swing. So far this season, Jan has only five hard-court wins. His biggest result was in Munich, where he won his maiden ATP title. Last year in Beijing, Struff lost his opening match against Ruud in straight sets.
Stanislas Wawrinka has lost four of his last five matches. His last match was at the US Open, where he lost his opening round match against Bellucci in straight sets as we predicted. Unfortunately for him, Wawrinka is struggling with his fitness and on-court movement, which is normal, considering his age. Last year around this time, Wawrinka played in Astana, where he lost his opening match against Giron in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Struff is the slight favorite in this matchup. Even though his form has been terrible on the fast hard courts this season, we still believe that Struff is a better player at this moment than Wawrinka.
That being said, Struff winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jan-Lennard Struff winning @1.50 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
Know your limit. Play within it.
