ATP 500 Beijing 1/16-Finals
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Bergs – Musetti: 27.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Zizou Bergs has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Bergs played in the Davis Cup, where he represented Belgium with two wins and one loss. Here in Beijing, Bergs successfully qualified for the main-draw tournament. Zizou defeated Hanfmann in the first qualifying round in easy straight sets. Yesterday, in the final qualifying round, Bergs won his final qualifying round against Moutet in straight sets once again.
Lorenzo Musetti has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Lorenzo reached the final, where he lost against Shang in straight sets as we predicted. Musetti is still a top 20 player, and he is looking for some decent results in the next couple of weeks to cement his top 20 status. So far this season, Musetti has not had any remarkable results on the hard courts. Lorenzo is yet to win a title this season. Last year in Beijing, Musetti reached the second round, where he lost against Carlos Alcaraz.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the slight favorite in this matchup. Given his last week’s performance, we believe that Lorenzo will be fully confident coming into this matchup. He is a way more experienced player than Bergs playing at this level, so we believe that his current form and experience will prevail in this match.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti winning @1.62 @bet365
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Khachanov – Carballes Baena: 27.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Karen Khachanov has won and lost four of his last five matches. Russians last couple of months were terrible for the Russian. He was aiming to return to the top 10 in the rankings at the beginning of the season. However, with his recent losses, Khachanov is close to dropping out of the top 30 in the rankings. Last week in Hangzhou, Khachanov lost his opening match against Bu in three tight sets. Last year in Beijing, Karen lost his opening match against Musetti in three tight sets.
Roberto Carballes Baena has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Baena reached the quarterfinals where he lost against Zhang in straight sets as we predicted. Here in Beijing, Baena failed to qualify for the main-draw tournament. He lost against Kotov in the final qualifying round in three tight sets. However, Roberto entered the main-draw as a lucky loser. Being a Spaniard, Baena spent most of his time playing on the clay courts. Around this time last year, Baena played in Astana, where he lost in the opening round against Shimabukuro in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Khachanov is the favorite in this matchup. We believe that these conditions will be perfect for him. On the other hand, Baena never had any success playing on the fast hard courts such as this one.
That being said, Khachanov winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov winning 2-0 @2.00 @bet365
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Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
