ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals
Paul – Arnaldi: 26.09.2024 04:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was at the US Open, where he lost against Sinner in straight sets in the 1/8-Finals of the tournament. Paul is the fifth seed here in Tokyo. He is looking for a solid result this week to get closer to the top 10 in the rankings. So far this season, Paul has had his biggest results on the fast courts, such as this one. Last year around this time, Tommy played in Beijing, where he lost his opening round match against Medvedev in straight sets.
Matteo Arnadi has won three of his last five matches. This year at the US Open, Arnaldi reached the third round, where he lost against Thompson in straight sets. Last week, Matteo played in the Davis Cup, where he represented Italy. He won his singles match against Monteiro in three tight sets. Last year around this time, Arnaldi played in Beijing, where he reached the 1/8-Finals as a qualifier.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tommy is the favorite in this matchup. We believe that he will be a better player than Arnaldi under these conditions. Paul loves to play on the fast courts, and we believe that he will dominate from the very start, and win this match easily.
That being said, Paul covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul -3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Michelsen – Tsitsipas: 26.09.2024 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alex Michelsen has won three of his last five matches. Before the ATP 500 in Tokyo, Michelsen took some time off. His last match before this tournament was at the US Open, where he lost against Sinner in the second round. Here in Tokyo, Alex won his first qualifying round match against Uchiyama in straight sets. Michelsen served well, not offering any breakpoints. In the final qualifying round, Michelsen defeated Coric in straight sets as we predicted. This has been the best season for the young American, who is looking to cement his top 50 status.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. Tsitsipas was upset by Kokkinakis in the first round of the US Open as we predicted. Last week, Stefanos played in the Laver Cup, where he won his singles match against Kokkinakis in straight sets. His recent poor performances led to him dropping out of the top 10 in the rankings. Last year around this time, Stefanos played in Beijing, where he lost against Jarry in the first round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Stefanos is the slight favorite in this matchup. He usually underperforms on the fast courts such as this one. Tsitsipas needs a lot of preparation time for his backhand, which will be tough for him here in Tokyo. On the other hand, Michelsen has already played two solid matches here in Tokyo, so we expect him to be fully confident coming into this match.
That being said, Michelsen winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alex Michelsen winning @2.30 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
