ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals
Tabilo – Rune: 26.09.2024 08:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alejandro Tabilo has lost seven straight matches. The young Chilean is completely out of form, but is still lurking around the top 20 in the rankings. Alejandro played in the Laver Cup and Davis Cup for the last couple of weeks, but still lost all of his matches. His last win was in August, where he defeated Sonego in the second round of the tournament. Tabilo had his biggest results in the first half of the season, where he won two titles, and became a top 20 player.
Holger Rune has lost three straight matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Rune was the first seed, but lost his opening match against Uchiyama in straight sets. It was another poor performance from the young Dane, who lost his top 10 status recently. His last win was in August, where he defeated Draper in the quarterfinals of the ATP Cincinnati. Last year, Holger struggled at this part of the season, so he will have almost no points to defend in the upcoming tournaments. Last year around this time, Holger played in Beijing, where he lost in the second round against Dimitrov in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tabilo is the underdog in this matchup. Both players are out of form, so we believe that this match will be a roller-coaster type of match. Tabilo is a big server, so we expect him to win some free points on his serve. We believe that Alejandro will be able to keep this match tight.
That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Ruud – Thompson: 26.09.2024 12:30 CEST
H2H: 3-3
Casper Ruud has lost three of his last five matches. Last week, Casper played in the Laver Cup, where he lost his only singles match against Cerundolo in straight sets. Ruud had his biggest results this season on clay. However, he underperformed on the faster courts such as this one. Last year in Tokyo, Casper lost in the second round of the tournament against Giron in straight sets.
Jordan Thompson has won three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Jordan played in the Davis Cup, where he represented Australia. He has played only one singles match, and lost it against Carreno-Busta in three tight sets. This has been the best season for him. Jordan achieved his career-high ranking of 29, and won his maiden title in Los Cabos, earlier this season. He loves to play on the fast courts such as this one. Last year in Tokyo, Thompson lost in the second round against Shelton in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ruud is the slight favorite in this matchup. Jordan knows how to play against Ruud. They have played against each other under similar conditions this year already. Thompson won that match in straight sets, and lifted his maiden title in Los Cabos. We believe that Jordan will be a better player under such conditions, and win this match.
That being said, Thompson winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jordan Thompson winning @2.20 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
