ATP 500 Beijing 1/16-Finals
Bublik – Cobolli: 26.09.2024 14:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alexander Bublik has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Bublik lost his second round match against Shang in straight sets as we predicted. Shang ended up winning the tournament as we predicted. Bublik is still a top 30 player, but if he keeps playing like this, soon enough, he will drop out of the top 50. Last year around this time, Bublik played in Astana, where he lost his opening match against Ofner in straight sets.
Flavio Cobolli has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Cobolli represented Italy in the Davis Cup, where he won and lost one match. Before that, Flavio reached the third round of the US Open, where he lost against Medvedev in straight sets as we predicted. Cobolli had his biggest results at the beginning of the season, which made him a top 40 player. Flavio had solid results on every single surface throughout the whole season. This will be his first Asian swing. Playing in the previous years at the challenger tour level, Cobolli skipped the Asian swing, so he does not have any points to defend here.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. However, we believe that Cobolli has been a better player this season, and we expect him to win this match easily.
That being said, Cobolli winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Flavio Cobolli winning @2.00 @bet365
Sinner – Jarry: 26.09.2024 08:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Jannik Sinner has won 12 straight matches, and holds the number 1 ranking. The last tournament he played was the US Open, where he won the title, winning against Fritz in the final as we predicted. After that, Sinner celebrated his second Grand Slam title, and took some time off. This has been the most successful season for the young Italian, who became just the fourth player to win two hardcourt Grand Slams in a single season. Jannik is the defending champion here in Beijing.
Nicolas Jarry has lost eight of his last nine matches. The Chilean had some injury problems, which led to him losing momentum. In the last four months, Jarry has only won one match, which was last week in the Davis Cup, where he defeated Klein as we predicted. Nicolas had his biggest results on the clay courts this season. Last year in Beijing, Jarry reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Zverev in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sinner is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. However, Sinner has not played any competitive tennis for the last couple of weeks, so we are not sure if he will be 100% ready for his opening match here. Jarry has a huge serve, and under these fast conditions, we believe that he could keep this match tight.
That being said, Jarry covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nicolas Jarry +5.5 games handicap @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
