ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals
Cilic – Nishikori: 26.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 6-9
Marin Cilic has won five straight matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Marin won the title, winning against Zhang in the final as we predicted. Cilic became the lowest ranked ATP Tour winner in history as he started the tournament ranked 777 in the world. The former US Open champion showed glimpses of his best form. However, he barely played in 2023, so he still needs time to get back to the best level of competitive tennis. We believe that this title will give him momentum, and that he will keep playing at this level.
Kei Nishikori has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Kei lost his opening match against Shang as we predicted. Shang ended up winning the tournament as we predicted as well. Kei had his biggest result of the season in Montreal, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Arnaldi in straight sets. Nishikori loves to play on fast courts such as this one. He is slowly, but surely returning to his best form.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cilic is the slight underdog in this matchup. We believe that he will have enough time to rest and prepare for this tournament. Marin played great tennis last week, and we believe that he will continue in that fashion.
That being said, Cilic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Marin Cilic +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Fritz – Fils: 26.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Taylor Fritz has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Fritz played in the Laver Cup, where he represented Team World. They ended up losing yet again against Team Europe. Fritz played two singles matches, and had an even 1-1 record. Before that, Fritz reached the final at the US Open, when he lost against Sinner in straight sets as we predicted. Last year in Tokyo, Fritz was upset by Mochizuki in the second round of the tournament.
Arthur Fils has lost three of his last five matches. Last week, Arthur represented France in the Davis Cup. He lost two matches, and won only one. Fils had his biggest results on clay this season. He underperformed on the fast hard courts such as this one. Around this time last year, Fils played in Shanghai, where he lost against Tommy Paul in the third round of the tournament. Arthur is close to getting into the top 20, so he is hoping for a decent result this week in Tokyo.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Taylor is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Fritz is playing his best tennis, and he also had his biggest results this season on the fast courts such as this one. We believe that he is a way better hard court player at this moment, and that he will dominate from the very start.
That being said, Fritz winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
