ATP 500 Tokyo 1/16-Finals
Mochizuki – Humbert: 25.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Shintaro Mochizuki has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Chengdu, Mochizuki successfully qualified for the main-draw tournament. In the first main-draw round, Shintaro lost against Hanfmann in straight sets. Mochizuki was granted a wild card here in Tokyo. He spent most of this season playing at the challenger tour level. So far this season, Mochizuki has not had any remarkable results. Those recent results led to him being almost outside the top 150.
Ugo Humbert has lost three of his last five matches. After being upset by Comesana in the second round of the US Open, Humbert played in the Davis Cup for France. In his last match, Humbert lost against Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets as we predicted. Ugo is still a top 20 player, and is looking for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. So far this season, Humbert has won two ATP titles already. Those results were at the beginning of the season, where he won the title in Marseille and in Dubai as well.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Humbert is the big favorite in this matchup. Ugo loves to play under fast conditions such as this one. We believe that he is a way better player at this moment than Mochizuki.
That being said, Humbert covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Humbert -4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Auger-Aliassime – Nishioka: 25.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 4-3
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won three of his last five matches. Felix was inconsistent throughout the whole season. After being upset by Mensik in the first round of the US Open, Felix decided to help Canada in the Davis Cup. He won all three Davis Cup matches in straight sets as we predicted. So far this season, Felix has not had any remarkable results. His biggest result was reaching the final at the Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid, where he lost against Rublev in the final.
Yoshihito Nishioka has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Hangzhou, Nishioka reached the second round of the tournament, when he lost against Marin Cilic in straight sets as we predicted. Nishioka is looking for a decent result this week with the help of the home crowd. With a solid result this week, Nishioka may get back into the top 50 in the rankings. Besides winning the title in Atlanta a couple of months ago, Nishioka has not had any remarkable results.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Felix is the slight favorite in this matchup. Both players have not had their best seasons this year. However, Felix has won his last three matches without losing a set, so we believe that he will be fully confident coming into this matchup.
That being said, Felix covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Felix Auger-Aliassime -3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey USA Today
