This is the third Grand Slam encounter between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev (all coming this season) and their 13th overall. Sinner won in an impressive comeback at the Australian Open final while Medvedev surprised some tennis fans and analysts by taking Sinner out in the quarterfinal of Wimbledon. Both matches went to five sets; Medvedev brought new tactics and developed new tools to ask Sinner the questions in both matches as well.
Neither player is coming into this match with a big psychological advantage over the other, but Sinner overall comes with better momentum from the North American hard court swing. He reached the quarterfinals in Montreal and won the title in Cincinnati. On the other hand, Medvedev lost his opening matches in those tournaments. Sinner was tested by an in-form Tommy Paul in the fourth round here and got through in straight sets. Medvedev, on the other hand, may come a bit undercooked. Both players know that whoever wins this match is the favorite to take the title, hence I expect both of them to be as prepared as it gets.
This will be the first Grand Slam match between these two where they are both in good form heading into the match. Medvedev was arguably too tired in the Australian Open final after playing so many five-setters, while Sinner was suffering from illness in their Wimbledon quarterfinal match. It will be interesting to see who will get the better of who here.
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev: Keys to the Match
Key Factors for Medvedev
Medvedev needs to have a high first-serve percentage, something he has struggled with this year as Sinner can neutralize Medvedev’s second serve. His spots are usually pretty good so he doesn’t need to worry about that. The potency of the backhand down the line needs to be on point as well, as Sinner’s relatively weak spot in his movement mid-rally this tournament was the run to the forehand side, even though it did look decent against Paul. Medvedev needs to be aggressive when he can to keep Sinner honest.
Medvedev must take advantage of any short returns he receives to gain control of the point and, if feasible, attack with the forehand, as poor plus-one balls will allow Sinner opportunities to win return points, as Sinner is one of the only players capable of outplaying Medvedev from the baseline. Consistent and deep second-serve return; even with his improved closer return position, Medvedev will not win as many first-serve return points, therefore he must make the most of the opportunities he gets on second serves.
Key Factors for Sinner
Sinner was very tight in the first set against Paul, so any signs of tightness against Medvedev would result badly. Medvedev is going to be ready to pounce on any opportunities given to him. The first-serve percentage is key for Sinner as well. He has to have at least the high 50s at the very least to keep Medvedev at bay, he can’t afford to drop below 50% for the match. A lower first serve percentage means more long baseline rallies played on Sinner’s serve, in a way he has to put in more physical effort, something that may backfire in case this match goes the distance as Medvedev looks to be the fitter player and Sinner has shown signs of discomfort in longer matches.
Sinner has to execute well at the net, whether behind the serve or mid-rally. The main things Sinner needs to practice in this regard are the execution of the drop shot and the plus-one approach shot (a key one against Medvedev is behind a T-serve on the AD side), something he did brilliantly in their Wimbledon match, especially after the second set. The forehand-to-forehand rally can be the main pattern that favors Sinner as long as he cuts down the unforced errors off it and uses controlled aggression well behind it, something he did show throughout most of the match against Paul, most notably in the tiebreaks.
Final Thoughts
The fast conditions should help Medvedev but I think it will help Sinner more. Medvedev should be extra motivated since he knows winning this would be his best chance at a second Slam. He will come out swinging like in the first two sets of the Australian Open final. He ran out of gas then, but that won’t be a problem here. This match could easily have been a final but even though it’s not, I expect a level worthy of a final from these two fantastic players, who play their best tennis on this surface.
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
