We have made it to the final weekend of the 2024 Paris Olympics, and four singles players still hope to claim gold. No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic will face the in-form Lorenzo Musetti. On the other side of the draw, No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz will face Felix Auger-Aliassime. As always, we at LWOT have our roundtable predictions for these two matches. Shane Black, Damian Kust, Jordan Reynolds and Ateet Shrivastava offer their insights. But who will advance to the gold medal match?
Paris Olympics Men’s Semifinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shane
Something about playing for his country brings the best out of Auger-Aliassime. He has been clinical at the Paris Olympics and is 17-6 on the clay this season. However, Alcaraz is the clear favorite in this match. The Spaniard mentioned fatigue as an issue in his quarterfinal win, but he will be fresher than his opponent, who has to play four matches in ~28~ hours.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Damian
Their match at the French Open earlier this year was kinda telling in terms of how this one will probably end up looking, but we can’t ignore Auger-Aliassime being pretty much the best possible version of himself the last two rounds. The Canadian has somehow played his best two matches of the season against Casper Ruud (here and Madrid), but it’s unlikely to give him much against someone as versatile and able to expose his backhand deficiencies as Alcaraz is.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Jordan
Auger Aliassime has surprised most people with his terrific run so far. Beating Alcaraz on clay would undoubtedly be the best achievement of his career. Despite holding a decent head-to-head record against the Spaniard, I just cannot see him overcoming Alcaraz. The French Open champion’s all-round game is just too strong and is capable of exploiting the Canadian’s weaknesses, especially his backhand.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Ateet
Alcaraz was in a spot of bother and looked tired in the second set against Tommy Paul but raised his level at the right moments to get it done in straight sets. That felt like the biggest challenge for the French Open champion so far, and he would be relieved to win it. Auger-Aliassime has looked in inspired form this Olympics as he took out Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. The Canadian player has the chance to win an Olympic medal, which would be a huge achievement for him. It was a perfect serving match from Auger-Aliassime, and he will need that again to have any chances against Alcaraz.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti
Shane
Djokovic is clearly not 100 percent, but he is into the Paris Olympics semis without dropping a set. Musetti has fully announced himself as a giant in the sport, posting a 16-3 record over the last six weeks. He must use his movement to his advantage in this contest. However, it seems as if Djokovic and Alcaraz are on a collision course for Olympic Gold.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Damian
Djokovic was struggling with the knee again in the quarterfinals and presently isn’t looking like a potential champion of this event. That is unless he avoids Carlos Alcaraz in the final, which makes this situation somewhat similar to Wimbledon. There he also faced Musetti in the semis and was able to prevail despite not being at his best. The Italian has been consistently awesome of late, but can he step up to beat Djokovic this time around? It should be easier on clay on paper. It’s still a tough task, though.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Jordan
Musetti has been close to beating Djokovic twice at Roland-Garros before running out of steam in the fifth set. The Italian’s improved mental strength, which he showed against Alexander Zverev, gives him a chance of getting over the line this time. Only needing to win two sets against Djokovic could also give him a psychological boost, and the Serbian may be feeling some pressure due to being two matches away from the one achievement missing from his incredible career.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Ateet
Similar to Alcaraz, Djokovic was almost on the brink of losing the second set and saved three set points to make a miraculous comeback. Djokovic looked exceptional in the first set but slipped at the start of the second and injured his right knee. It took him some time to play at a good level again. Lorenzo Musetti is in the form of his life, and his confidence must be extremely high after beating Alexander Zverev. Musetti has always troubled Djokovic at this venue, and it won’t be any different this time around. His elite defense and variety will frustrate Djokovic. Much will rely on Djokovic’s fitness. If he is 100%, he will not pass up the opportunity to win a potential Gold Medal. But if he is hampered, Musetti is skilled enough to take advantage of him. Not too confident but going with the Serb.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
