ATP Olympic Games semifinals
Djokovic – Musetti: 02.08.2024 19:00 CEST
H2H: 6-1
Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five matches. Here in Paris, Novak absolutely dominated against Ebden in his first round match as we predicted. Matthew was far away from his best level when he used to play singles. In the second round, Novak won easily against Rafael Nadal in straight sets. Nadal looked exhausted on the court, and did not offer much. Nole was 4-0 up in the second set, but lost his serve twice. However, Novak stayed calm and finished the match in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Novak won against Koepfer in straight sets. The German put up a big fight in the first set. However, Novak was a better player when it was important. In the second set, Djokovic broke his serve once and finished the match comfortably. Today, in the quarterfinals, Novak won against Tsitsipas in straight sets. It was by far his biggest challenge in the tournament so far, but Novak handled it perfectly. After winning the first set 6-3, Novak started the second set poorly. He was 0-4 down, but somehow came back and won the set through the tiebreak. Something we do not say too often, but Novak is yet to win a title this season. His whole focus is on the Olympic Games, because that is the only tournament he ever won.
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Umag, Musetti reached the final where he lost against Cerundolo in three tight sets as we predicted. Here in Paris, Lorenzo won his first round match just a day after his final match in Umag. Musetti defeated Monfils in straight sets, and looked fit on the court. Monfils made too many unforced errors, so Musetti did not have to work much. Today, in the second round, Lorenzo won against Navone in straight sets yet again. Similar to Monfils, Navone made 30 unforced errors, and fumbled under pressure. In the 1/8-Finals, Lorenzo defeated Fritz in straight sets as we predicted. Lorenzo lost his serve only once, which was at the beginning of the first set. After that, Musetti stepped up his level, and turned the set around. The second set was even up until 5-5 when Lorenzo broke Fritz’s serve and won the match comfortably in straight sets. Today in the quarterfinals, Lorenzo defeated Zverev in straight sets as we predicted. Musetti won all the important points in the match and deservedly won against the defending champion.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Djokovic is the favorite in this matchup. Looking at his quarterfinal match against Tsitsipas, Novak struggled on the court. Tsitsipas could have won the second set easily, but fumbled under pressure. Musetti looked great throughout the whole tournament, so we believe that he will be able to keep this match tight. Looking at their previous meetings, we can see that they were always tight matches.
That being said, Musetti winning the set is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti +1.5 sets @1.85 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
