The once 64-man draw has dwindled to eight at the 2024 Paris Olympics as some of the top players in the world vie for Gold. A win in the quarterfinals guarantees your spot in a medal match, ratcheting up the stakes for Thursday’s matches at the Games. Six of the top nine seeds remain, including No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic, who squares off against No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.
As always, we at LWOT have our roundtable predictions for these matches. Shane Black, Damian Kust, Jordan Reynolds and Ateet Shrivastava offer their insights. But who will advance to the semis?
Paris Olympics Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
Shane
Tommy Paul has given Carlos Alcaraz the most fits from any single opponent in the Spaniard’s young career. They are 2-2 in best-of-three matches, though this will be their first meeting on clay. Alcaraz won Roland Garros earlier this year and is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court singles matches. These are two of the best movers on tour, which should create a brilliant back-and-forth match. I see Alcaraz bouncing back from his doubles loss and winning a decider.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Damian
Historically a rather tricky matchup for Alcaraz and even at Wimbledon he was 5-7 0-2 down. It feels like on clay this will be slightly more comfortable for him though and the Spaniard should have enough time to neutralize whatever Paul throws at him. It’s really all about playing smart and keeping a cool head, which he should be able to do on the dirt.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Jordan
Alcaraz has found Paul a tough matchup in the past, but those were on hard and grass courts. On clay, despite Paul’s improvements on the surface, Alcaraz is a bigger favourite. Expect the Spaniard to dictate the rallies throughout this contest.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Ateet
Alcaraz played his best match of this Olympics against Roman Safiullin and if he continues to play like that, he will be in the final. Tommy Paul has caused trouble to Alcaraz, but on clay, he doesn’t have any advantage over Alcaraz. Paul won’t be able to hit through Alcaraz and won’t receive many free points when serving. If Alcaraz is dialed in, he will win in straight sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shane
Casper Ruud has been one of the best clay players in the world over the last few seasons. However, Auger-Aliassime bested him in straight sets earlier this year in Madrid. The 23-year-old Canadian always seems to play his best tennis when competing for his country. Give me Auger-Aliassime in a tight one.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3
Damian
Auger-Aliassime played his best match of the season to defeat Ruud earlier this year in Madrid (a run that included lots of walkovers and retirements otherwise). But the Canadian will not be as threatening at sea level and while Ruud wasn’t always playing his best at the Olympics so far, he seems good to make the final four at least. After that, things will get extremely tricky.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Jordan
Auger Alissime has surprised many with his level in Paris. If the Canadian serves well again, he could upset Ruud, despite his better record on clay. The Norwegian’s solidity and ability to target Auger Aliassime’s backhand on clay still makes him a slight favourite, but it could be a close battle.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Ateet
Casper Ruud didn’t look at his best in the first two rounds but he was very impressive against Cerundolo. Probably his match in some time. He was confident with the backhand down the line and hitting the forehand with great power and precision. Auger-Aliassime had a great win against Daniil Medvedev. This was his best shot at getting a win over Medvedev and he took it. The Canadian defeated Ruud in Madrid this year and Ruud will want revenge. Ruud has the advantage in these conditions.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti
Shane
Alexander Zverev is my pick to win this event. He is 23-5 on the surface this season and combines power and movement to dispatch his opponents in a multitude of ways. Musetti, coming off a Wimbledon semifinal, has proven he can beat the best in the world. However, the German should have too much firepower for him here.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Damian
Zverev made the final at the French Open and seems to be well-positioned to reach that same stage at least. But this is where some issues might pop up as he’s facing Musetti, who recently went up a level in terms of consistency and is capitalizing on his Wimbledon momentum. It’s nice that we get this match as they’ve never had a completed one against each other. Zverev’s serve plus consistency might be just a bit too deadly.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Jordan
Musetti proved he is ready to perform in big matches at Wimbledon. Despite that, it is hard to bet against Zverev. He usually makes at least the semifinals when he plays at Roland-Garros. The German is also capable of exposing Musetti’s one-handed backhand with his own excellent backhand.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Ateet
Lorenzo Musetti continues his great form as he defeated Taylor Fritz for the third time this year to reach the quarterfinals. It has been an amazing couple of months for the Italian. He might run out of gas this week sooner or later, but reaching this far is in itself a great achievement after reaching the final in Umag last week. Alexander Zverev saved a set point in the first set against Alexei Popyrin and got better after that moment. He hasn’t looked at his absolute best so far and will need to be better against Musetti to continue his quest for a second Gold.
Prediction: Zverev in 3
Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shane
No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic is still not 100 percent healthy, but he has yet to be tested at the Paris Olympics. One of the few things the 37-year-old has not accomplished in his career is Olympic Gold, adding extra motivation to the already uber-motivated 24x Grand Slam champion. Tsitsipas has had another incredibly consistent season. However, he is just 2-11 against Djokovic, including ten straight losses.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Damian
Tsitsipas used to lead 2-1 in this rivalry, but has lost 10 matches in a row against Djokovic since. Maybe he’s not quite done here, though. It’s been over two years since they last played each other on clay and with the Serbian being less clinical this year (plus the Olympics being such a massive goal for him), this could be the moment when Tsitsipas fires back.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
Jordan
Tsitsipas has caused Djokovic problems on clay in the past, and this is a stiff challenge for the Serbian. However, the 24-time Grand Slam champion has been in great form in all his matches so far. I think he can exploit Tsitsipas’ backhand enough times to claim victory in Paris.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Ateet
Novak Djokovic faced a tough battle from Dominik Koepfer in the first set but after that, he won easily and was playing more aggressively. Djokovic has been very clinical this week and will need to be at his best to win the quarterfinal. Stefanos Tsitsipas played a similar match, battled in the first set and cruised in the second. Djokovic has won 10 matches in a row against Tsitsipas but it has been close most of the times when they have met on clay. Tsitsipas is not in the best of form and Djokovic has the matchup advantage. If Tsitsipas plays inspired tennis, he might take a set but not more.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
