ATP 250 Umag 1/16-Finals
Van Assche – Fognini: 23.07.2024 16:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Luca van Assche has lost three straight matches. Last week in Bastad, van Assche lost his first round match against Ajdukovic in straight sets. The last main-draw match on the ATP tour that he won was in April in Madrid, where he won against Bergs in the first round. The French youngster has been struggling a lot with his form, which brought him back to the challenger tour level and also led to him getting out of the top 100.
Fabio Fognini has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Gstaad, Fabio had a decent tournament, reaching the quarterfinals where he lost against Tsitsipas in straight sets as we predicted. Recently, Fognini had some solid results which earned him a return to the top 100 in the rankings. So far in his career, Fognini has reached the final twice here in Umag, winning the title in 2016, and finishing as a runner-up in 2013.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. Fabio has won all seven first round matches this season at the main-draw level. He loves to play in Umag, so we believe that he will be successful in the first round yet again. On the other hand, van Assche is struggling a lot, and we believe that he will continue his losing streak.
That being said, Fognini winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fabio Fognini winning @1.73 @bet365
Rublev – Ugo Carabelli: 23.07.2024 18:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Andrey Rublev has lost three of his last five matches. Andrey has been struggling a lot with his mental issues. Rublev was the defending champion last week in Bastad. However, he failed in his first match yet again. Rublev lost against Tirante in three tight sets. To keep his top-10 spot in the rankings, Rublev needs to start winning. In 2017, Andrey won the title here in Umag as a lucky loser.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Bastad, Ugo lost in the first round against Rocha in three tight sets. Here in Umag, Ugo won his first round match against Mikrut in straight sets. Carabelli was great under pressure, saving 5 out of the 6 breakpoints. This will be a big match for him as he never got past the second round at the tour level. Carabelli spent most of his career playing at the challenger level. He is now a top 100 player who is looking to keep improving.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the favorite in this matchup. Even with his current form, we believe that he is a way better and more experienced player than Ugo Carabelli. Camilo is inexperienced, playing at the biggest stage, and we believe that his experience will be the main problem. Rublev will eventually start winning, so we believe that this will be the tournament where he will find his best tennis.
That being said, Rublev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
