The Wimbledon final is set as a rematch from the final in 2023, an epic five-set match where Carlos Alcaraz prevailed for his second major title. However, the roles are reversed this year, with Alcaraz as a slight favorite coming into the match and Djokovic somewhat of an afterthought, with many anticipating him to pull out of Wimbledon altogether after undergoing a meniscus surgery just one month ago.
Last year’s final saw Alcaraz, the world’s No. 1 player, but still an underdog against Djokovic. Grass has been the most difficult surface for the younger generation to master, and Alcaraz had never made it past the fourth round coming into the event. Djokovic was a clear favorite, having won four consecutive Wimbledon titles, adding to his total of seven overall, good for the second most of all time.
2023 Final Recap
Djokovic’s Hot Start
The final started and immediately looked like it may be a quick one. Djokovic stormed out to a 5-0 lead in the first set, securing two quick breaks of serve and, after a testy first game, holding serve convincingly. Alcaraz was able to avoid the bagel but had no answers on return as Djokovic held to love to win the set. Djokovic was cruising and showing his dominant big-match form, which was the reason he had won seven of the eight Wimbledon finals he had competed in. Alcaraz showed incredible composure in getting an early break of serve to get back in the match. Djokovic quickly broke back, and the rest of the set was straightforward, with neither player even having a break point after 2-2.
The second set tiebreak turned the match. Alcaraz was in essentially a must-win situation, as Djokovic has only lost one match in his career after winning the first two sets, all the way back at the 2010 French Open. Djokovic started in command after winning the first three points, but Alcaraz fought back to tie it at 3-3. With little separation, the two changed ends at 6-6 after several balls were taken into the net by Djokovic, where Alcaraz then captured the set on Djokovic’s serve. This was the turning point, in a match Alcaraz looked to be out of early and was one point away from a seemingly insurmountable hole, things were suddenly all square.
Momentum for Alcaraz and Djokovic’s recovery
Alcaraz picked up right where he left off and dominated the first half of the third set, again breaking Djokovic’s first service game. The game of the match was an incredible 26-minute service game by Djokovic that saw 13 deuces and seven break points. It seemed that even if he were still down a break, the momentum from winning the game could give Djokovic the energy to come back in the set. Alcaraz had just as much battle and finally secured the break before holding serve to take his own 6-1 set. The match had completely flipped, and now Djokovic seemed to have little chance.
Djokovic left the court after the set, and as he had done so many times, he psyched himself up and came out as a different player. While he did not look quite as sharp as he did in the first set, he limited mistakes and took advantage of the key points. He looked great on return and broke Alcaraz’s serve twice, including in the final game of the set to win 6-3 and be able to serve first in the final set. The momentum had again swung in his favor, but Alcaraz showed no signs of slowing down.
Deciding Set: Alcaraz Holds his Nerve
The final set seemed to be decided in the second game. After Djokovic began the set with a nervy hold, he seemed to be ready to continue his momentum and take over the match with the killer instinct he has displayed for the last 15 years. He held a break point at 30-40 for a potential 2-0 lead that would have felt much larger. He played the point well and had a chance for a straightforward smash to win the game. The smash is probably the only weakness in Djokovic’s complete game, and he dumped it into the net and then lost the next two points. He showed his frustration and lost his focus from here. Alcaraz immediately broke in the next service game, and Djokovic had no answers from there.
While Djokovic held serve for the rest of the match, the greatest returner of all time was unable to get to Alcaraz’s serve. In the Spaniard’s final four service games, Djokovic did not manage a breakpoint or even force a game to deuce. Alcaraz looked poised and hit big shots when it mattered to hoist his second major and first Wimbledon title.
What we Learned
Alcaraz is a big-match player
While it has been clear for nearly two decades that Novak Djokovic plays his best tennis on the biggest stages, Carlos Alcaraz has shown that even at age 21, he thrives under pressure. He has won all three of the major finals he has played and has an incredible 5-1 record in Masters 1000 finals. His only loss was to Djokovic, though it was an almost four-hour battle in Cincinnati where Djokovic won two tight tiebreaks in a match that easily could have gone in favor of Alcaraz. He has battled through adversity in his last two major finals, having to come back from down a set at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon last year. Even against the greatest of all time, Alcaraz has always played Djokovic well, and neither big stages nor the player across the net has been able to phase him at all.
Djokovic is Beatable at Wimbledon
Djokovic came into the match on a 34-match win streak at Wimbledon. Not only did he win four titles but in that span was taken to a fifth set just three times. Centre Court seemed like a second home to him, making Alcaraz’s win all the more shocking. However, it is important to note that he did not go down easily. While Djokovic has almost always been on the other side of winning the key point when he seemed down and out, which turned the match, the 2023 final saw him just points away from a likely title. If he puts away the smash in the second game of the final set or wins his set point in the second set tiebreak, he likely holds on for his Wimbledon title. While Alcaraz earned every bit of the title and will be confident to do it again, Djokovic knows that he had what it took last year to win and will try and take that into this year’s final.
Difference Makers
Djokovic’s tactics will be where he will look to give him the edge to win the title. He has always been an expert tactician, both pre-match and changing tactics during a match. He utilizes his box heavily since coaching has been allowed and will surely develop a game plan to exploit Alcaraz’s few weaknesses. Defeats give him even more motivation, especially against rivals, with seven of his last eight defeats to Roger Federer resulting in a Djokovic win in their following meeting. Djokovic has won his two meetings against Alcaraz since last year’s Wimbledon, including a dominant 6-3 6-2 victory in the Tour Finals on a fast, hard court. He knows what it takes to beat Alcaraz and will be as hungry as ever to do so here.
Alcaraz simply relies on the confidence that he will be a winner to hoist both consecutive Wimbledon and major titles. He has not looked his best at Wimbledon this year, falling two sets to one down in the third round against Frances Tiafoe and dropping the first set in both his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. He has shown that, like Djokovic, he has the ability to find a way to win even without his A-game. He will also look to keep his perfect record in major finals intact with another victory and his fourth major title at age 21. While Djokovic looks incredible physically, the knee is still a concern, and Alcaraz will also look to use his fitness to extend points and test the body of his opponent, who is 16 years his senior.
Overall, little separates the two players both before the match and on the court. Each player will come in confident that they can win, and if the final provides the quality, intensity, and drama that it did last year, fans will be treated to more thrilling tennis and a worthy champion.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
