ATP Wimbledon semifinals
Djokovic – Musetti: 12.07.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 5-1
Novak Djokovic has won five straight matches. Less than a month after knee surgery, Novak won his first round match at Wimbledon, winning against Kopriva in straight sets. Vit stood no chance, and Novak has shown that he is here to win. After that, Novak had it tough against Fearnley in the second round of the tournament. Djokovic won in four tight sets. In the third round, Novak lost the first set against Popyrin. However, once he stepped up his game, Novak was unstoppable. His on-court movement looks great again. Popyrin played a very solid match, but it just was not enough for Novak. Djokovic defeated Rune in the 1/8-Finals in straight easy sets. Once again, Novak dominated from the very start. He offered only two breakpoints, and saved both of them. Alex de Minaur withdrew from the tournament right before his quarterfinal match against Novak due to a hip injury. That being said, Novak is in the semifinal, without having to play his quarterfinal match. So far this season, Nole is yet to win against the top 10 players. Last year at Wimbledon, Djokovic lost in the final against Carlos Alcaraz in five tough sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has won five straight matches. Two weeks ago, Musetti reached the final in London where he lost against Tommy Paul in straight sets as we predicted. Here at Wimbledon, Lorenzo defeated Lestienne in the first round. Musetti was one set down, but managed to turn the match around by winning three straight sets. After that, Musetti defeated Darderi in five tough sets. Lorenzo was 1-2 down, but once again stayed calm and turned the match around. It was overall a high-quality match. In the third round, Musetti defeated Comesana in four sets as we predicted. The second and third sets were tiebreaks. Other than that, Musetti dominated in the first and fourth sets. In the 1/8-Finals, Lorenzo defeated Mpetshi Perricard in four sets. Musetti lost the first set, but managed to stay calm and turn the match around. Before his quarterfinal match, Lorenzo faced three players outside the top 50. His only top 50 player was Darderi, who is a clay court specialist. His quarterfinal match against Fritz was also his toughest match. Lorenzo fought for almost four hours, and won the match in five tight sets. Taylor looked exhausted in the deciding set, as Musetti dominated by winning the deciding set 6-1. Last year at Wimbledon, Musetti lost against Hurkacz in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the big underdog in this matchup. Novak is clearly the second-biggest favorite to win Wimbledon this year. He looks fit, and he had a lot of time to rest for this match. On the other hand, Musetti had a tough quarterfinal match, which will impact his semifinal performance. We believe that Novak is a way better, more experienced, and more rested player than Musetti.
That being said, Djokovic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Novak Djokovic -6.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
