While it may seem odd to consider a player who has reached two consecutive finals a dark horse, Jabeur has somewhat fallen off the radar this WTA season. After three consecutive years with titles and 12 total finals in that span, Jabeur has yet to make a final in any event this year. She has won just 54% of her matches after posting a 71% overall win rate over her past four seasons. While she is not playing great tennis, that has not stopped her in the past from competing at big events. Jabeur did manage a strong run to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros which she will look to build momentum from.
There are plenty of reasons Jabeur is not a favorite but her history alone gives her reason to believe. While she does not seem to have the form to make a deep run, Ons Jabeur is one to keep an eye on at Wimbledon due to her big-match abilities, comfort on grass courts, and the lack of a clear favorites in the ladies’ draw.
Ons Jabeur at 2024 Wimbledon
2023 Parallels
One of the biggest reasons to think Jabeur can step up at Wimbledon is she came into the even last year in a similar position. She had a poor hard and grass court swing but rode momentum from a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open. While last year she did manager a title on clay, the year had been poor otherwise and she was just 1-2 in grass court events leading up to Wimbledon. Again, Jabeur showed why she is so dangerous at Majors by stepping up when it mattered most and once again coming close to a title. There is no reason to believe that she could not do it again this year.
The Other Contenders
Probably the biggest reason Jabeur has a real shot to make a run at Wimbledon is vulnerabilities in her competitors. Iga Swiatek is clearly the best player in the world but has never looked comfortable on grass courts. Coco Gauff will be looking to increase her Grand Slam total at the event where she first broke out but she has not even made the quarterfinals here before. Another American, Jessica Pegula, is in Jabeur’s draw, but while she has a great game, she is opposite the Tunisian in the sense that she has failed to find her best tennis at Majors. Defending champion Market Vondrusova captured plenty of magic last year in a run that will be nearly impossible to repeat, and 2022 champion Elena Rybakina has struggled with her fitness over the last month and may be hampered at Wimbledon.
Aryna Sabalenka is the oddsmaker’s favorite for the event and rightfully so. While her game speaks for itself, she has her lowest winning percentage of any surface on grass, and has yet to win a WTA Tour title on the surface. She is certainly dangerous but Jabeur matches up well against her and beat her here last year.
Final Prediction
Jabeur has a chance to win her first Major title her despite her poor run of form entering the event. Much more surprising things have happened in women’s tennis highlighted by two fairly unexpected winners of the last two editions of The Championships. Jabeur does have a difficult draw in the event so she will likely have to rely on some help and upsets of potential top opponents. That being said, Jabeur can beat anyone on tour on her day and no player will want to stand across the net from her. She realistically should be playing in the second week and into the quarterfinals, but the depth of the draw will be too hard to get through.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
