ATP 250 Mallorca final
Ofner – Tabilo: 29.06.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Sebastian Ofner has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Halle, Ofner lost in the first round against Zhang. Here in Mallorca, Ofner had a solid first round performance, winning against Munar in three tight sets. After that, in the second round, Sebastian defeated Darderi in straight sets. Ofner had a great serving performance, getting 14 aces with 85% 1st serve points won. In the quarterfinals, Michelsen could not get the job done as we thought, and Ofner defeated him after he was set down. Ofner was great under pressure, saving 8/9 breakpoints. Today, in the semifinals, Ofner won against in-form Paul Jubb in straight sets. Ofner won the first set without any troubles. However, in the second set, Sebastian saved the set point, and managed to win the set 7-5. Ofner saved both breakpoints, and served brilliantly yet again, hitting 15 aces. Sebastian never had any remarkable results on grass courts. His result here in Mallorca will get him back into the 50th in the rankings. So far in his career, Ofner has played 6 finals at the challenger tour level, and even lost 5 of them. At the main tour level, this would be his maiden championship match.
Alejandro Tabilo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in London, Tabilo lost against Tommy Paul in straight sets. That was also his first grass court tournament of the season. Here in Mallorca, Tabilo absolutely dominated against Shevchenko in the 1/8-Finals. In the quarterfinals, Tabilo won against Mensik in straight sets as we predicted. Alejandro served well, and was the better player throughout the match. Today in the semifinals, Tabilo lost the first set 2-6 against Gaël Monfils. After that, Tabilo dominated in the second set, winning the set 6-2. In the deciding set, Tabilo saved 2 breakpoints, and won the match through the deciding set tiebreak as we predicted. Even though he is a big server, and has a huge forehand, Tabilo finds it hard playing on grass courts. Last season, Tabilo played only one match on grass, which was at Wimbledon. He lost there in the first qualifying round against Herbert. With this result, Alejandro will reach the top 20 in the rankings for the first time in his career. This will also be his third championship match at the ATP tour level, with each appearance coming on a different surface. This season, Tabilo won his maiden ATP title in Auckland. After that, Tabilo had a chance to win the second title of the season against Baez, but fell short in front of his own crowd in Santiago.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tabilo is just the slight favorite in this matchup. We believe that he is a way more experienced player playing on the big stage than Ofner. Sebastian has already lost five finals, so we believe that it will be mentally tough for him tomorrow.
That being said, Tabilo winning the match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo winning @1.67 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
