After a thrilling fortnight of tennis in Paris, just two women are still in contention for the French Open title. One is enjoying a breakout fortnight, the other is in the process of establishing herself as the undisputed queen of the red clay and is aiming for a third straight title at Roland Garros. But will it be Iga Swiatek or Jasmine Paolini who comes out on top?
French Open Final Prediction
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini
Jim: As well as Jasmine Paolini has played in reaching her first Grand Slam final, it is just hard to look past Iga Swiatek. The Pole did come to within a whisker of defeat in the second round against Naomi Osaka, but otherwise she has been utterly untroubled in reaching fourth French Open final in five years. She has also won both her previous matches against Paolini, dropping just six games across two dominant straight-sets wins.
Paolini did play very well in the semifinals, dismissing Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-1 and not looking remotely overawed by the occasion. But a semifinal is one thing, a Grand Slam final quite another and Andreeva is not Swiatek. Stranger things have happened, but frankly anything other that another straight-sets win for Swiatek would be a real surprise.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
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Yesh: What a run this has been for Paolini. It’s a career-defining breakthrough to cap an amazing improvement this year. And yet, it just won’t be enough. Iga Swiatek on the Parisian clay is just a different beast. Being runner-up to her is no shame, and that’s exactly where Paolini will land.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Jordan: A Paolini win would be one of the biggest ever Grand Slam final upsets. Although the Italian has played superbly to reach this stage, Swiatek is far ahead of any other female player on the French clay. Paolini also does not possess the firepower that is needed to disrupt the world # 1. She will need to be as aggressive as possible with her forehand and be braver than usual on return to have any chance. But it is tough to see how Swiatek does not claim her fourth French Open title.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Damian: Rybakina and Sabalenka going out on the same day took quite a lot of energy out of the tournament. These two seemed to be the only remaining threats to Swiatek. The Pole hasn’t played Paolini since the Italian improved so much last year, but it’s not like this should be a scary matchup for her anyway. First-time finalist nerves are a thing too and I doubt the underdog will be ready to throw the kitchen sink at her. Likely a comfortable win for Swiatek, who survived a match point in round two but has had absolutely zero issues otherwise.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Shane: The recent rise of Paolini has been exciting to watch. She doesn’t overpower opponents, but when her forehand is in form (as it was in her semifinal win over Andreeva), she can put pressure on her opponent. That said, Swiatek at Roland Garros is a different beast. The 23-year-old Pole is a Nadal-esque 31-1 in her last 32 French Open matches. Let’s hope this final isn’t lopsided, but it very well may be.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Steen: Swiatek’s head-to-head record is a comprehensive 2-0 on Paolini, the Italian has reached this final from relative obscurity, previously she had never been beyond the round of 16 in a Grand Slam. The wins over Rybakina in three sets and Andreeva in two sets were excellent, but nothing really indicates that Swiatek is going to have a difficult time in this Grand Slam final. Only Osaka in the second round was a threat to Swiatek thus far and she’s the far more accomplished player overall and this year.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
