Is Alex de Minaur Primed for a Deep French Open Run?

Alex de Minaur ahead of ATP Los Cabos

After just one hour and forty-eight minutes of action, Alex de Minaur had already booked a place in the second round of Roland Garros. It was the ideal day for a Grand Slam opener. Little energy spent means little fatigue gained, all while aiding his match sharpness.

Onlookers would have been forgiven for not believing they were watching the world #11 face the world #60. The gap between the two was enormous. Truthfully, it was barely competitive. Nonetheless, it did highlight the growth that the Aussie has enjoyed over the past twelve months. The fact he holds the #11 seeding while at the same stage last season was just #18 is a testament to that.

In his seven previous tries he has failed to get past the second round at Roland Garros, clearly clay is not his forte. However, with his ceiling rising on every other surface lately, there is no reason why that cannot carry over to Paris.

In the opening set we saw de Minaur dominate from the off. The colder conditions were suiting his flatter strokes, and he was able to take the initiative winning 6-1. Part of the reason that he has been able to improve so much over the past season is due to the extra power he has brought to the table. Despite making just 42% of his serves in the first set he won 80% of those points and 64% on the second serve. While uptake in speed has decreased accuracy slightly, it could just be a climatisation process. Moreover, it allows him to dominate his service to a greater extent and win more free points. Throughout the clash, he executed the serve plus one winner combination successfully fourteen times really highlighting that.

His play at the net has also come on leaps and bounds which was exemplified in the first set as he won six out of six points in this situation. It was a set where all the good of Alex de Minaur came to a crescendo.

The next two sets were more of the same. Even if a temporary break began the third set, it was never really in doubt as the Aussie powered home 6-2.

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A torrid day for Michelsen

The reality is though, that it wasn’t only a case of de Minaur brilliance. Michelsen played a really poor match. There was an awkward look about his movement on the clay. It was as though a British club player had gone abroad and played on a clay court for the first time, not knowing what to expect. It made for a damp squib of a match. Considering it was just a week ago when he defeated none other than Taylor Fritz in three gruelling yet high quality sets, such a low level was bizarre. Then again, that is what splits the top players from the rest: consistency.

It’s worth mentioning that apart from Geneva, the American has had a poor clay court campaign. The high altitude present can be somewhat misleading and is essentially the opposite of a blistery day in Roland Garros. At just nineteen years old and one of only four teenagers in the top #100, some off-days are expected. It’s how he responds that is important.

Improvements must be made

The reality is that for de Minaur to reach the second week his serving accuracy must improve. As the returning level improves he will no longer be so strong on second serve points and the 52% rate he served at today will consistently put him on the back foot.

Next for de Minaur is Jaume Munar, a seasoned clay court player who just recently took British #1 Cameron Norrie to three sets. You would expect him to get through that without much fuss; however, Round 3 is where it’ll get tricky. He will likely face an in form Jan-Lennard Struff who has enjoyed nothing short of incredible results on clay in the last season. Last year’s Madrid runner-up took Carlos Alcaraz to a third set tiebreak meanwhile, defeated Holger Rune 6-2 6-0, plus Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.

Get by the German–as unlikely as I believe he will–Daniil Medvedev could be the next opponent. The Russian leads the head-to-head by six wins to two although they have never faced off on a clay court.

As much as Alex de Minaur impressed greatly Tuesday, and has had some solid results as of late, a late run in Roland Garros might be too far a step. I wouldn’t write him off though. He’s made a habit of forcing people to eat their words as of late.

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports

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