The first round of men’s singles at the French Open wraps up on Day 3. To conclude the round, we are treated to 20 matches on Tuesday. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on all of the matches. We split the day’s 20 matches between this and four other articles. The other articles feature Novak Djokovic vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Casper Ruud vs Felipe Meligeni Alves, David Goffin vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Holger Rune vs Dan Evans. Predicting today’s matches are Jim Smith, Jordan Reynolds, and Damian Kust. Who do you think will advance?
French Open Day 3 Predictions
Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Jim:
It would be not atypical of Jan-Lennard Struff’s career were he to follow-up his excellent recent form with a first-round defeat here. But the German has been consistently performing in recent weeks and has the power to hit Roman Andres Burruchaga off the court. If he plays anything like his best tennis, expect him to do just that.
Prediction: Struff in 3
Jordan:
Struff is at his most dangerous on clay when he is firing, as shown by his title run in Munich last month. Burruchaga’s consistent baseline game has the potential to be tricky. Overall, though, the time Struff has to hit his groundstrokes should take him through to the next round.
Prediction: Struff in 4
Damian:
Burruchaga deserves plenty of credit for grinding down in-form Kovalik and Shang in the qualifying, but things will get significantly more tricky here. While Struff can also be an error machine from time to time, he’s been in great shape this clay swing and has the weapons/net game to make sure the points are short.
Prediction: Struff in 4
Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Jim:
In his first match of 2024, it will be interesting to see what sort of level Pablo Carreno Busta can deliver. The Spaniard, twice a quarterfinalist in Paris, is undoubtedly a good enough player to win this match, but will also surely have to deal with a lot of ring rust. With Mario Navone enjoying the best season of his career, expect the Argentine to be the player to advance.
Prediction: Navone in 3
Jordan:
Carreno Busta will hope to get through this match without any physical issues after such a long time away from the sport. Being competitive immediately after being on the sidelines is a tough ask. Navone is also adept at extending the rallies, which makes it even tougher for the Spaniard.
Prediction: Navone in 4
Damian:
We know nothing about Carreno Busta’s fitness as the Spaniard will be coming back after almost half a year of inactivity. Nishikori won a match kinda out of nowhere this event, but does Carreno Busta have the same level of natural talent? Not really and he needs match rhythm more. He’s also facing Navone who’s had a meteoric rise of late.
Prediction: Navone in 3
Nuno Borges vs Tomas Machac
Jim:
Tomas Machac demonstrated his quality by beating Novak Djokovic last-time out in Geneva en route to his first ATP final. He wasn’t able to secure a fairytale finish there, losing to Casper Ruud, but will surely have taken real confidence from his efforts all the same. More of the same should see him past Nuno Borges.
Prediction: Machac in 4
Jordan:
Machac has the confidence from a victory against Novak Djokovic and run to the final in Geneva to take into this contest. Yet, I have a feeling Borges will burst his bubble here. The Portuguese player will be stubborn in defense and consistently ask Machac to come up with good shots. Machac is very capable of doing that, but the expectations on him after his heroics in Geneva might weigh on him.
Prediction: Borges in 4
Damian:
Machac is coming off the Geneva final, where he even missed a set point against Ruud in the opener. He might be in for a slightly rougher time here though as adjusting to the slower conditions won’t be easy and one of the reasons he did so well in Switzerland was that altitude boost to his weaponry. This sounds like a trap for him after the run last week.
Prediction: Borges in 5
Alexander Bublik vs Gregoire Barrere
Jim:
Alexander Bublik is certainly capable of turning in the sort of performance that will make Gregoire Barrere’s life very easy. But the Kazakh has been playing that sort of loose and unfocused tennis less frequently of late and, although he is not particularly comfortable on the clay, should have enough aptitude to see of Barrere’s challenge.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
Jordan:
Bublik’s natural ability is higher than Barrere, even on his least favorite surface. Yet, I am going for an upset here. Barrere is rigidly consistent at his best and has the potential to stifle Bublik’s ultra-aggressive style on clay. Bublik often has an unexpected poor performance in him at the start of tournaments as well.
Prediction: Barrere in 5
Damian:
This is a bit of a wild one. Barrere isn’t a natural clay-courter but has actually regained his form on this surface now despite hinting at retirement earlier this year. Bublik meanwhile is more and more often showing a lot of grit and determination to fight. If we see that version again, he might be a small favorite here.
Prediction: Bublik in 5
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
