ATP Geneva semifinals
Cobolli – Ruud: 25.05.2024 10:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
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Flavio Cobolli has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Cobolli lost in the second round of the ATP Masters 1000 in Rome against Korda in three sets. At the beginning of the season, Cobolli reached the second week at the Australian Open, which was also his biggest success so far this season. En route to the semifinal here in Geneva, Cobolli dropped only one set in the quarterfinals against Ben Shelton, which was his second top-20 win of his career. In the first round, Cobolli defeated Karatsev in straight sets. After that, he lost the first set against Shelton and was also trailing 2-4 in the second set as well. However, Cobolli kept his composure and turned around the match. Yesterday, Cobolli defeated Shevchenko in straight sets. Cobolli had a 5-1 lead in the second set with two match points, but Shevchenko kept fighting and almost turned the match around. The Italian youngster will have a new career-high ranking next week because of his performance here in Geneva. If he would reach the final, Cobolli would get into the top 50 for the first time in his career. This semifinal appearance is his biggest result so far. Before that, Cobolli reached the quarterfinals three times, but never made it to the semifinals.
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Casper Ruud has won three of his last five matches. His form has been declining in recent weeks. In his first match here in Geneva, Ruud lost the first set against Ofner 4-6. However, once Casper picked up his form, Ofner did not have an answer for his game. Casper won the second and third sets 6-2 each. After that, Ruud had to fight hard against Baez in the quarterfinals. After just over two hours, Ruud defeated Baez in three tough sets as we predicted. Casper lost his serve three times, and was overall playing badly under pressure. So far in Geneva, Ruud had not been playing his best tennis. It will be important for him to win this match in order to gain self-confidence for the French Open. Because of the rain, the winner of this match will just have a couple of hours’ rest before they play in the final against Machac, who had finished his match earlier today against Djokovic. Two weeks ago, Ruud lost his first match in Rome against Kecmanovic. Before that, Ruud was upset by Auger-Aliassime in the 1/8-Finals of the ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid. It is not mentioning that Ruud has already won two titles here in Geneva, his first one in 2021, and his last one in 2022. Last year, Ruud was stopped by Nicolas Jarry in the quarterfinal.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cobolli is a huge underdog in this match. Casper Ruud is nowhere near his best level. We believe that he will still win, but expect Cobolli to keep this match tight.
That being said, Cobolli covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Flavio Cobolli +4.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
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Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
