ATP Rome final
Zverev – Jarry: 19.05.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: 4-2
Alexander Zverev has won five straight matches, losing only one set here in Rome. Two days ago, Zverev won against in-form Tabilo in three sets as we predicted. He was down 0-1, but managed to fight through the second set tiebreak and turn around the match. Before that match, Zverev had won all of his matches in straight sets as well. Sascha served once again great against Tabilo. However, he was not able to win almost any points with his second serve. So far this season, Zverev has not have any success on the clay. He lost in Munich against Garin in the quarterfinals. After that, Zverev lost against Cerundolo in straight sets in the 1/8-Finals in Madrid. Last year in Rome, Zverev lost against Medvedev in the 1/8-Finals. Worth mentioning that Zverev got lucky with the draw and did not have to face any top 10 players en route to the final. This would be a much-needed win for him to finally win a title and get confident just before the French Open. Zverev is a five-time champion at the Masters level and has an even 5-5 record in championship matches at this level.
Nicolas Jarry is one of the most dangerous players on the tour when he has a good day. Unfortunately for him, his consistency is a big problem and that is the main reason why Jarry is not a top 10 player. In his last match, Jarry won against Paul in three tight sets as we predicted. Nicolas served great once again, getting 13 aces with just 2 double faults. He was also great under pressure, saving 5/6 breakpoints. Jarry played his aggressive tennis, which went well for him. He had 35 winners with 23 unforced errors and looked scarless. Before that match, Jarry had won against Tsitsipas and covered the games handicap as we predicted. He played great tennis under pressure once again, saving 11/13 breakpoints. So far this season, Jarry, reached the final in Buenos Aires, beating Alcaraz in the semifinals. Other than that, Jarry did not have any remarkable results. In his previous attempts in Rome, Jarry never won a main-draw match. It is worth mentioning that this is the first time Jarry has beaten two top-20 players in one tournament, winning against Tsitsipas and Paul. All of his previous six title matches have been played on clay where Jarry holds an even 3-3 record.
Best Bet to Make
Looking at the head-to-head meeting on clay, both players have won two times. Last year in Geneva, Jarry defeated Zverev in straight sets. We believe that this will give him self-confidence so that he can do it once again in one of his biggest matches of his career. According to the bookies, Jarry is a big underdog in this match. However, we already saw that Zverev is not playing his best tennis. Both players had two days’ rest, and we expect them to be fully fit.
That being said, Jarry covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds. Nicolas Jarry +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Zoe Meyers/The Desert Sun/USAToday Sports
