ATP Rome semifinals
Tabilo – Zverev: 17.05.2024 15:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alejandro Tabilo has won eight straight matches. Last week, Tabilo won the challenger title in France, defeating Munar in straight sets. Here in Rome, Tabilo won his first match convincingly against Hanfmann in straight sets. After that, Tabilo upset Djokovic 6-2 6-3, in one of his best matches of his career. En route to the semifinal, Tabilo also won against Khachanov in straight sets. Yesterday, Tabilo dictated the match from the very start against Zhang as we predicted and secured his maiden Masters semifinal. Earlier this year, Tabilo made history as the first Chilean to win an ATP title on hard courts in 17 years. He is a very dangerous player when he plays his best tennis, which he has already shown multiple times in his career.
Alexander Zverev has won four straight matches without losing a set here in Rome. Yesterday Zverev won against in-form Fritz in straight sets as we predicted. Before that match, Zverev had won his first two matches in straight sets as well. Once again, Zverev served well and did not offer any breakpoints against Fritz. So far this season, Zverev has not have any success on the clay. He lost in Munich against Garin in the quarterfinals. After that, Zverev lost against Cerundolo in straight sets in the 1/8-Finals in Madrid. Last year in Rome, Zverev lost against Medvedev in the 1/8Finals.
Best Bet to Make
Alejandro Tabilo is a big underdog in this matchup. Zverev has shown great tennis and that is why he is one of the biggest favorites to win the tournament. However, Tabilo is playing without any pressure, and he has also been dominant so far in the tournament, even against one of the best players on the tour.
That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +3.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365
Jarry – Paul: 17.05.2024 20:30 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Nicolas Jarry is one of the most dangerous players on the tour when he has a good day. Unfortunately for him, his consistency is a big problem and that is the main reason why Jarry is not a top 10 player. In his last match, Jarry won against Tsitsipas and covered the games handicap as we predicted. He played great tennis under pressure, saving 11/13 breakpoints. So far this season, Jarry, reached the final in Buenos Aires, beating Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Being an American, Paul rarely plays on the clay courts. He also has not had any remarkable results on clay so far in his young career. Last year in Rome, Paul lost his first match against Garin in three sets. However, so far in Rome, Paul has been playing great tennis. He had already won against Medvedev and Hurkacz. This is his best run on the clay, and he absolutely deserved to win against Hurkacz yesterday.
Best Bet to Make
Tommy Paul already got himself two big wins in Rome. However, both Hurkacz and Medvedev are not that good on clay. We believe that Jarry showed even better tennis so far in the tournament and that he will play without any pressure and win this match.
That being said, Jarry winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nicolas Jarry winning @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
