ATP Rome 1/16-Finals
Paul – Koepfer: 13.05.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Tommy Paul has lost three of his last five matches. Being an American, Paul rarely plays on the clay courts. He also has not had any remarkable results on clay so far in his young career. Last year in Rome, Paul lost his first match against Garin in three sets. This is his second clay court tournament of the season. Paul won his first match against out-of-form Karatsev in straight sets. Even though he did not lose his serve, Paul struggled a lot, and had to save 9 breakpoints.
Dominik Koepfer had five straight losses before at Rome. With those losses, Dominik is out of the top 50. However, he has shown great tennis here in Rome so far. In the first round, Koepfer won in straight sets against Vavassori. After that, Koepfer completely dominated against Frances Tiafoe and won 6-4 6-2 easily. Dominik played aggressively from the very start, and it has paid off for him. Last year, Koepfer played most of his matches at the challenger tour level, so that is why he did not play in Rome.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Koepfer is a slight underdog in this match. However, Tommy Paul did not show much this season on the clay. We believe that Koepfer is a better clay court player, and that he will win this match.
That being said, Koepfer winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Dominik Koepfer winning @2.20 @bet365
Baez – Rune: 13.05.2024 16:00 CEST
H2H: 2-2
Sebastian Baez has lost three of his last five matches. He is a top 20 player just based on his clay court performances. Here in Rome, Baez won his second round match against Lajovic in two tight sets. Baez could not hold his serve, but he was perfect on his return. Before the ATP Masters 1000 Rome, Baez reached the 1/16-Finals in Madrid where he lost against Fritz in straight sets. Before Madrid, Baez had three straight losses and could not do much on his favorite surface.
Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. So far this season, the young Dane has struggled with consistency and confidence. His inconsistency also led him to drop out of the top 10 in the rankings. Last year in Rome, Rune had a great run, winning against Djokovic and Casper Ruud. However, he could not win the title as he lost against Medvedev in straight sets. A couple of days ago, Rune won easily in straight sets against Luca Nardi. He secured a break in each set which led him to a 6-4 victory.
Best Bet to Make
Looking at their head-to-head meetings, Baez won both times on the clay. We believe that he will give Rune big trouble in this match. According to the bookies, Baez is an underdog. We are not sure if Baez can upset Rune, but we believe that he will cover games handicap easily.
That being said, Baez covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Baez +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
