ATP Rome 1/64-Finals
Napolitano – Berrettini: 09.05.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 2-1
Stefano Napolitano got the wild card for the ATP Masters 1000 in Rome. He lost two straight matches. Two weeks ago, Napolitano lost in the qualification tournament of the ATP Madrid 1000 against Gasquet in straight sets. Before that, Napolitano reached the quarterfinals in Oeiras, where he played the challenger tournament. Earlier last month, Napolitano won the challenger title in Madrid. He has played most of his matches this season at the challenger tour level, and he has already won two challenger titles so far this season.
Matteo Berrettini has won five of his last six matches. He is slowly getting back to his best form. After being out for almost 7 months, Berrettini made his return in March when he played a challenger tournament in Phoenix. Matteo reached the final there, where he lost against Borges in straight sets. Last month, Berrettini won his first title of the season in Marrakech. He played some great matches throughout the tournament and won in the end against Carballes Baena in straight sets. Shortly after that, Berrettini lost in the first round in Monte Carlo against Kecmanovic. That was also the last match he had played. We believe that Berrettini wanted to take care of his body and prepare for this part of the season.
Best Bet to Make
Berrettini has looked great so far this season. He will play at home in what will be the biggest tournament of the season so far for him. We believe that he is a way better player than Napolitano, and that he will win this match easily.
That being said, Berrettini winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini to win 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Nadal – Bergs: 09.05.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Rafael Nadal is preparing for what will be his last Roland Garros. He said that he feels ready, and we believe that this will be a great tournament preparation for him. Rafa has won three of his last five matches. Last week, the king of the clay played in Madrid. He lost in the 1/8-Finals against Lehecka in two tight sets. Before that, Nadal had won three straight matches. He also won against de Minaur in straight sets, which was the first tough competitive match he has won since his return. We believe that Nadal will start great. As time goes on, we believe that his body will be exhausted by the end of the week.
Zizou Bergs has won 7 of his last 8 matches. He is on the verge of breaking into the top 100. Bergs has already played two qualification matches here in Rome. Yesterday, Bergs had a tough match against Shang that he ended up winning in two tight sets. He loves to play on fast surfaces. Two weeks ago, Bergs won his first challenger title of the season in Tallahassee on the fast clay court.
Best Bet to Make
Rafael Nadal is obviously a way better clay court player than Bergs. We believe that he will dominate in his first two rounds where he is still fit enough.
That being said, Nadal winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rafael Nadal to win 2-0 @1.44 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
