ATP Madrid final
Auger-Aliassime – Rublev: 05.05.2024 18:30 CEST
H2H: 1-5
Felix Auger-Aliassime had some luck coming into this final. Two of his opponents, Jakub Mensik and Jiri Lehecka, had to retire mid-match. Other than that, his quarterfinal opponent, Jannik Sinner, withdrew from the tournament before the match started. This is the first time in history that there were three walkovers or retirements en route to the Final in a Masters tournament. Nevertheless, Auger showed great tennis in Madrid in his last full match against Casper Ruud. He won in straight sets against one of the best clay court players at that time. It is not mentioning that Ruud looked exhausted in that match, and, overall, played a terrible match. No matter how this final goes down, Auger-Aliassime secured his top 30 return. So far this season, Auger has not have any remarkable results, and was really inconsistent. This is already his biggest result of the season. Even though he is a great hard court player and loves to play on fast surfaces, Auger adapted well to this clay surface in Madrid. Last year, Aliassime reached the quarterfinals here in Madrid where he was defeated by Zverev in straight sets.
Andrey Rublev has played great so far in Madrid. Before the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid, Rublev lost four straight matches. He was struggling mentally, and just could not control his emotions on the court. Here in Madrid, Rublev won his first three matches in straight sets. A couple of of days ago, Andrey made a comeback against Carlos Alcaraz. Rublev won in three sets against the defending champion as we predicted and showed us how good he is on any surface. We believe that this win was much needed for him to get his self-confidence and trust back. Yesterday, Rublev faced Fritz in the semifinals. Andrey was a better player from the very start, and just dominated Taylor. He ended up winning the match 6-4 6-3 while spending just a little over an hour on the court. His return game was brilliant. Andrey converted 3 out of the 6 breakpoints, while losing his serve only once at the beginning of the match. Rublev was calm under very well tactically. Unusual for him, but his shot making was just brilliant. He ended the match with 20 winners and only 10 unforced errors. If he could repeat such a performance, Rublev should be able to lift the title easily here in Madrid. His toughest match so far was against Alcaraz, where he won in three sets after being for two hours on the court.
Best Bet to Make
Looking at the head to head history, Rublev has won 5 matches already against Auger-Aliassime. The only time Auger has won against Rublev was two years ago in Rotterdam under really fast conditions. Looking at their performance here in Madrid, we have to say that Rublev showed better tennis and had harder opponents’ en route to the final. According to the bookies, Rublev is a big favorite today, and we have to agree with that.
That being said, Rublev covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev -3.5 @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
